Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to 2019. A review of the December 2019 local sales and the eagerly awaited full-year over full-year statistical review are both a focus of this months’ report. I know you are as excited as I am, and I hope you appreciate the Bronco Orange in the graph this month. Rumor has it the orange will bring us a great new coach and a return to our winning ways. Fingers crossed.

Before you get too excited about the numbers in the graph you need to understand exactly what they are, then you can spread the good word of how great it is to live in Longmont. The percent increases within the large arrows represent the total growth of average prices over five years. It isn’t a yearly growth. Here are some actual numbers to help you fully understand. Below, the far-right column shows the price change from 2014 to 2018. The bars in this month’s graph show the steady, yearly climb in average price over the past 5 years.

It’s always good to have the kids home from college.

The Longmont market is starting to see a steady change it the year over year (YOY) activity. Since we are such a seasonal market, we generally like to see similar activity or volume each year. The flaw in this rationale is that, due to new construction, there are an ever-increasing number of homes each year. Because of that we should see sales volume totals increase each year. Well, the market and the houses don’t talk. The market whispers to homeowners and right now it’s beginning to whisper a Shift. Locally, our YOY monthly and yearly sales are down, Days on Market (DOM) are up, inventory is up, and prices are still climbing.

December 2018 Longmont Area Real Estate Statistics (.pdf)

December 2018 Longmont Area Real Estate Statistics (.jpg)

2017 vs 2018 Year End Review

The higher prices you see are a byproduct of the past few months of the summer demand, but I think the sales totals, DOM increases, and increased inventory are signaling that the Shift is real. These are trend lines starting to move in a different direction. When I say different direction, I am not indicating violent turn of events like the mortgage meltdown. The picture I’d like to paint is that of an airplane flight path, but instead of flying from L.A. to N.Y., it’s flying from L.A. to Shallotte, N.C. where my home builder buddy Doug Keech lives. Get the map out, it’s a much flatter line, but still slowly rising and this will be indicative of what you should see through out 2019.

Now for the fun stuff. It’s time to look at the 2017 vs 2018 Extra, Year-over-Year, Statistical extravaganza that I have been asked no fewer than 25 time for in the past week. You people love this stuff and I’m happy to prepare, produce, present and, once again predict.

A year ago, I was patting myself on the back for being the only optimistic person to say we’d be above an 8% average price increase. I was also telling you it couldn’t happen again and that this year we’d finally take a break from sharply rising prices…well I was wrong! The average price of a home in Longmont increased by 9.5% in 2018. Sure, it’s below double digits, but it rounds up to 10. And for goodness sake, the average price of an attached home was up 11.8%! If you remove the 10 half-duplexes that sold in Prospect last year for over $600k the average price still goes up by 8.1% on attached homes.

For the first time I wish Longmont had the price increases that the Carbon Valley has. Their price increases were reasonable. I’d have been quite satisfied with those results. When we started seeing double digit gains about five years ago it was very exciting because we were still thinking about how bad prices were between 2008 and 2010. The good news…we still aren’t Boulder. Even though they have the world’s greatest excessive regulation, building codes, linkage fees, affordable housing programs, and Googlers galore, they are still one of the most expensive places to live with an average price of a single-family resale home in 2018 of $1,215,731. This is up from a mere $1,094,000 in 2017 for a solid 11.1% increase.

What’s going to happen in 2019? Please refer to the flight path to Shallott, N.C in paragraph 4. I’ve said it before, but this time it’s really going to happen. 8% price increase in 2019. Promise. But if I’m wrong this time it’ll be more like 5% instead of 10%. Promise. This prediction has a caveat or two. If a recession hits, it will be lower, but I don’t think that’ll happen yet. If Longmont can’t figure out how to get homes built with their new inclusionary zoning initiative, then we will settle in at about 12%…again.

I hope you all had a happy, safe and restful holiday season. Now it’s back to work. In yearly sales, you may have had a pretty good 2018, but you have a doughnut hanging next to your name for 2019. I’m a small business consultant, let me know how I can help you grow your business this year. My contact information is below. I’d love to hear from you.

Cheers,

Kyle Snyder
ksnyder@firstam.com
720-534-8355

Let’s jump right in to the things I see in this months’ stats report. And to be honest, it’s nice to see things change a bit because it gives us something to talk about. This long, steady, upward march of prices and low inventory has been a little boring to write about for the past couple of years. It’s interesting to watch and participate in, but how many times can you stand hearing the same broken record? This month I may have a little different take on things.

First American sales team Habitat Build Day. I got to climb the ladder and touch-up paint!

First things first, click on one of the links to the stats report below so you can see what I’m writing about. The top one marked (.pdf) usually displays a little better. The graph in the middle has been updated from last year. It follows the monthly average sales price of single family homes in both Longmont and the Carbon Valley (Firestone, Frederick and Dacono) from January 1, 2015 until the end of October 2018. The upward arrows point to October of each of the past four years. Each October is preceded by a dip in the month or two before. That dip is the typical start of the Fall slowdown. I point this out because the current market shift, or slowdown, that many of you are feeling is normal market activity. The difference this year is that the fall dip was preceded by the highest of all-time highs, so it feels a little more severe. Additionally, this October has one of the narrowest recent year-over-year (YoY) differences in monthly average sales price (+1.1%). We aren’t used to measly 1.1% gains. Oddly enough we have become accustomed to the extraordinary. Last month our YoY monthly gain was 14.7%! So, is the market broken or is it our perception of the market?

Longmont Area Sales Statistics for October 2018 (.pdf)

Longmont Area Sales Statistics for October 2018 (.jpg)

Using this graph last year was to show the relative increases between two local markets. The gap is still widening. The trend line is a two-period logarithmic trend to flatten things out, but you can see it has kept on a steady upward pace in both Longmont and the Carbon Valley. The solid black line in the middle is simply a line connecting October 2015 with October 2018 and it’s nearly exactly parallel to the Carbon Valley average price line. I find that odd and coincidental but encouraging that it is still going in the right direction.

Look at the negative numbers that indicate a declining percentage next to each of the Average Days on Market section in all areas. Yes, it’s negative in all of them. There are very large negative numbers in three of the four areas. Total sales are way down as well in three of four areas. How are sales down AND Days on Market down at the same time? This goes a little against common sense, which would suggest that when sales drop, average days on market increases. Add to this October puzzle, the not so obvious fact that all average and median prices in the report are either slightly positive or slightly negative.

What do the three facts in the paragraph above tell us about the market? First, this information indicates that well priced properties are selling fast. Secondly, well priced homes (not low priced, well priced) make up a majority of those selling right now. In fact, a search of October sales shows two thirds of all sales last month were below the average days on market and priced from $260,000 to $977,000. In a shifting market, a listing cannot set the new high price in the neighborhood anymore. If your seller insists on playing this game, they need to realize all the buyer agents in town are reading this information too and their buyer will move on to the next available house that shows value in its pricing. The market is not rising like it was. It may again, possibly next summer, but not currently. This, my friends, is a good description of a flattening market.

Kyle Snyder
First American Title Insurance Company
Account Executive
720-534-8355
ksnyder@firstam.com

The more things change, the more they stay the same. I’m not sure if that is a famous quote or just an old wives’ tale. Nonetheless, it seems to be true in a lot of things. I created a new visual aide in this month’s graph, which represents total monthly sales from January of 2016 until now. In the graph, the purple bars show just how consistent the month of January is in being the slowest sales month of the year. The yellow bars show June and August of each year. Those months are consistently the two highest months of the year. Red bars represent September and are only highlighted because that’s the month we are reporting. And, if you look closely, the pattern of the blue bars is fairly consistent.

I didn’t intend for this graph or article to be a lesson on consistency or a review of the color wheel. The point of this month’s graph was to show the nature of todays business. I hear a lot of commentary on how things are changing and slowing. The graph doesn’t show a change. The monthly sales results don’t point to any dramatic changes in Longmont single family or attached sales. So, what’s so different out there? The yearly business cycle is moving into fall mode, which generally sees fewer sales, fewer listings, softening of prices, more days on market and all those customary changes that come with the leaves turning in Colorado.

I get it. I feel it too. I can’t put my finger on it, but the frenzy seems to have left the market. Is this a softening of demand? I think that is a possibility. A new listing can’t set the new, high price in the neighborhood anymore, it can’t be any higher than the price of the last, highest sale. Days on market went from 46 to 52 and while that is only an increase of 6 days, it’s a 13% increase

Recent trip to Moab

and agents can feel it in the cool, fall air.

September 2018 Real Estate Statistics as a .pdf

September 2018 Real Estate Statistics as a .jpg

I’ve tossed a lot of theories out over the years. For the most part these theories are my own, come from my observations of the data and generally hold true. One of these theories is that our real estate market is a reaction to that of Boulder’s. The market to the east of us in the Carbon Valley is then a reaction to ours. This is only when the market is on the way up. When it’s on the way down, we see it in the east first, then us, then Boulder. It progresses in the opposite direction. My friend Glenn Fleckenstein of Hammond Appraisals and I discussed this very theory, at length, back in 2002. It is as true now as it was back then. So, let’s take a look to the east.

If we look closely at all the red colored, negative percentages in the Firestone, Frederick and Dacono area, you will see some significantly large drops. We haven’t seen anything like this in quite a while. Is this the start of reversal of some sort? Maybe, but I doubt it. Sales were down an alarming 51.8%, but if you look closely, there were only half the listings. Days on market dropped significantly, but with fewer homes for sale, one would expect this and, technically, it’s an indicator of strong demand. Lastly, the 11% decline in year-to-date sales is in line with the BoCo Plains and the rest of the Denver Metro area, which has largely been attributed to low inventory.

I guess that takes us full circle. We are back to where we started where the more things change, the more they stay the same. As many agents that tell me that they have slowed down, I have an equal number who tell me just how busy they are. It’s the start of the 4^th quarter folks. Ask yourselves if you are happy with your results for the year. If not, come see me and we can talk about it, so we aren’t in the same spot next year. If you like your results, come see me and we will see how we can keep it going, or increase your success for next year. Think of me as your own, personal, small business consultant who likes to tell fun and exciting title stories.

Regards,
Kyle Snyder
720-534-8355
ksnyder@firstam.com

I see a lot of fun and exciting things in this month’s sales statistics report. I also uncovered and updated a couple of other tidbits for your reading pleasure. But first of all, I want to thank everyone who came to the Grand Opening and Ribbon Cutting at the new First American Title office. We had well over a hundred guests, great food and fun was had by all in our beautiful new space. Thank you.

There hasn’t been a monthly report with this many red numbers on it since 2009 or 2010. But honestly, it’s not all bad news. This is just a one month snapshot, so it doesn’t tell the whole story, but it surely can tell some of it. One number that isn’t red is the average sales price for Area 5 ($1,041,830!!!). Last year’s average price in July was the previous highest number typed into this report. This year it’s even bigger and for the first time in 13 years of producing this report, we have an average sale price of over a million dollars. And yes, for reference, I pulled up the averages for the City of Boulder to compare. Year to Date, the average sales price of a single family home in Boulder is $1.269 million and the average price of an attached home is just north of $588k!

As you can clearly see, the red numbers in the Longmont Single Family section are just slightly lower in: monthly sales, yearly sales and days on market, but WOW on the decrease in inventory. To have these negative numbers and still have the median and average sales prices go up is incredible. This is a clear indication of steady demand. Yes, there is a correlation to low supply, but I’d have guessed that the demand would wane a bit with our previous price increases. It’s the proverbial wind being taken from the sails, but that’s not happening.

I see some interesting numbers in the Longmont attached sales too. It looks like a large drop in sales, but the 2017 sales were buoyed by, among others, the 8 condos on Charles Dr that sold in the $400k range. There were only 2 new construction attached sales in July of 2018…so it’s easy to see where that decrease came from. We don’t do negative median and average, or at least we haven’t for the past several years, so why the negative median sales price in attached homes? It’s really just a blip caused by the lower sales volume as discussed above.

Moose on Vail Pass

Longmont Sales Stats for July 2018 (.pdf)

Longmont Sales Stats for July 2018 (.jpg)

Please take a look at the graph I created this month. Industrywide we have been noticing “it’s just a little slower than it was” for some time now. The graph shows monthly sales totals for each month for the past 6 years. It also shows the average for those 6 years. The only month in 2018 when the monthly sales total exceeded the average was March. Also, March and January were the only months where the monthly sales total exceed that of last year. Overall, this is clearly a declining trend. In fact, just this morning, a wise, local sales manager (Rodney Carlson) suggested we are seeing a return to a normal market. The only problem with that assessment is that normal is going to mean something different to a long-timer than it is to an agent who has been in the business less than 6 years.

The Carbon Valley is quietly putting in huge numbers. Their monthly sales have been steady and their YTD sales are not declining like in Longmont. They are also facing the similar challenges with lower inventory and rising prices. Somehow, their median and average prices don’t seem to be climbing as fast as those in Longmont. There is a lot of new construction east of I-25…I wonder if that has anything to do with it.

I have a new resource in my stats world so things may be changing. One of the top sales reps in the state has decided to join our team here at First American Title. Her name is Megan Aller and many of you may know her from her real estate statistical presentations in the Denver Metro area. I am going to promise her a beer or two to help me update some of what I do here for you. More to come on that later.

Regards,

Kyle Snyder
ksnyder@firstam.com
720-534-8355

Colorado Statistics

Please click on the desired city below in the map or scroll down and click on the name of the city in the list to obtain Colorado Single Family and Condo Statistics.

Arvada
Condo
Single Family

Aurora
Condo
Single Family

Berthoud
Single Family

Boulder
Condo
Single Family

Brighton
Single Family

Broomfield
Condo
Single Family

Castle Pines
Single Family

Castle Rock
Condo
Single Family

Centennial
Condo
Single Family

Colorado Springs
Condo
Single Family

Commerce City
Single Family

Denver
Condo
Single Family

Elizabeth
Single Family

Erie
Condo
Single Family

Estes Park
Condo
Single Family

Evergreen
Condo
Single Family

Englewood
Condo
Single Family

Fort Collins
Condo
Single Family

Franktown
Single Family

Golden
Condo
Single Family

Greeley
Condo
Single Family

Greenwood Village
Condo
Single Family

Highlands Ranch
Condo
Single Family

Johnstown
Single Family

Lafayette
Condo
Single Family

Lakewood
Condo
Single Family

Larkspur
Condo
Single Family

Littleton
Condo
Single Family

Lone Tree
Condo
Single Family

Longmont
Condo
Single Family

Louisville
Condo
Single Family

Loveland
Condo
Single Family

Monument
Condo
Single Family

Nederland
Single Family

Parker
Condo
Single Family

Pueblo
Condo
Single Family

Sedalia
Single Family

Superior
Single Family

Thornton
Single Family

Wellington
Single Family

Westminster
Condo
Single Family

Wheat Ridge
Condo
Single Family

Windsor
Condo
Single Family

Woodland Park
Condo
Single Family

If you have any questions, please feel free to call, text or email.

Regards,

Kyle Snyder
ksnyder@firstam.com
720-534-8355

It’s finally starting to feel like spring! There’s so much going on around town and I’m excited to write this stats piece this month. There are a couple of other gems in here for you as well. Let’s start with a recent announcement that First American Title was named Best Places to work in Canada for the fourth year in a row. However, in Canada we are known as First Canadian Title…makes sense I guess. So, not only are we in the Forbes 100 Best Places, and the Denver Post Top Places in Colorado, but also the Best Places to work in Canada. This really is an amazing company.

I saw this next piece floating around somewhere, but I want to make sure to share it with you. It’s an interactive map of all the oil and gas wells in Colorado. I think this is worth saving in your bookmarks in your browser because you never know when you will need it for a client. People are getting very selective about buying property that might be near an oil or gas well. Click on this link to see it on the Denver Post web site.

Now to the stats. Yes the average price of single family and attached homes in Longmont keeps rising. When only 4 single family homes sold last month for under $300k it makes sense that the average would tend to rise. Given our long term trend of rising prices and low inventory, rising prices are simply no surprise. What if I told you there were only 7 attached homes that sold last month for under $300k? It’s true, and I’m as surprised as you are. Even more surprising is that one of those new townhomes out by Silver Creek was resold for $531,000.

The Boulder County plains area looks like it might be taking a breather, but it’s not. It’s as hot as anywhere else with Year-to-Date sales exceeding last year by 8.4%. The lowest sale in this area last month was $363k and it had 11 sales for over $1 million. The highest sale was a $3.5 million spread that was only on the market for 10 days!

April 2018 Longmont Real Estate Statistics (.pdf)

April 2018 Longmont Real Estate Statistics (.jpg)

The Carbon Valley is also full steam ahead. Of their 54 closed sales last month, 14 of them were new construction. The average price of those closed new construction homes is $465k. Year-to-Date closed sales out there are still ahead of last year’s pace and their average price is still increasing. It’s looking like this could be another robust summer of home sales if inventory keeps pace.

For this month’s graph, I updated one on inventory from two years ago. I dropped the 2007 data so we could see this year better. The high point in ’07 was nearly 900 listings in July of that year. Can you believe we are at only 236 now? When we say historic lows, this current inventory level really is shockingly low. Of those 236 listings, 135 are under contract and 27 are unbuilt new construction. That leaves us with a grand total of 74 active resale homes on the market. No that’s not nearly enough, especially when there were 84 sales last month. That’s less than a 1 month supply of homes.

I know these rising prices are not good for everyone, but we really don’t have it so bad. Just for grins I took a peek at what’s happening in Boulder. So far this year they have sold 191 single family homes, with an average days on market of 64, and a whopping average sales price of $1,255,790. That’s for the entire year and their highest sale was only $5.2 million. On the attached home side over in the People’s Republic 178 were sold so far this year at an average price of $590k and 61 days on market. Surprisingly, the highest priced closed condo was more expensive than the highest priced single family home at $5.5 million.

Let me know if I can help you with your real estate business. I’m a small business consultant, a former magazine publisher, an idea guy and your personal marketing assistant. All you need to do is call, text or email and we will find a time to have a confidential meeting. 720-534-8355 or ksnyder@firstam.com.

Regards,

Kyle Snyder
720-534-8355
ksnyder@firstam.com

Another month and another record setting average sales price. I’m guessing that at least once this year we’ll see the average Longmont single family home break the $450k price mark. It has to happen if we can post an average of nearly $448k in January. Additionally, I predict we’ll see the average attached home exceed $350k. While I’m on a roll, I’ll go ahead and throw this one out there too: the Carbon Valley will see its first $400k monthly average. I’d like to say these are bold predictions, but they aren’t. The two I made for Longmont are only a smidge away in the slowest month of the year and the median price in the Carbon Valley is at exactly $400k this month, so they will all come true, it’s just a matter of time. What would be very surprising is if none of them come true.

Speaking of predictions… I still keep up with my custom built sales predictor. For years, this marvel of mathematical engineering has been called The Predictor. Recently we named it Henrietta. And Henrietta was off by 5 sales for the entire year of 2017. One day someone will figure out how to make money with such accurate information. Let me know if you have an idea and you’ll be able to rename it.

Architectural Rendering of South Main Station. Construction trailer recently moved on to the property. Looking forward to this historic project.

One thing we don’t need Henrietta to predict is the lack of inventory at this time of year. If you look at the chart in the middle of the stats page, it clearly shows a dip in inventory at this time of year… every single year. We understand this is a result of the weather and holidays. If we take a peek into the current inventory numbers we’ll see there are only 60 active listings that aren’t under contract and 23 are still under construction. It’s pretty tough to find a home for a buyer to move into immediately with only 37 active listings on the market. Spring is coming and this situation will improve, but to what extent?

January 2018 Longmont Sales Statistics (.pdf)

January 2018 Longmont Sales Statistics (.jpg)

There are two things that give me a bit of hope when it comes to inventory this upcoming year. The first is depicted in the graph. The surge in inventory last year was higher than the previous year. This was despite higher prices, so it screams excess demand. Our current inventory situation is simply a winter thing that needn’t be over-explained. Let’s get a show of hands of who wants to move during the winter. Seeing none, we can agree that it’s simply more convenient and comfortable to move in the summer.

The other thing that gives me hope is the continued new construction of single family homes and apartment complexes. My research show there were about 250 new homes added to town last year. And of the 1,800 apartments on the books to be built, about half of them have been completed with many of the rest to be completed this year. The capacity and opportunity for turnover new construction brings to the market will result in a year similar to the past three. That’s if interest rates don’t run away from us. Fingers crossed.

Rant of the Month

When Realtors talk about their employment status they usually say they are an Independent Contractor. Technically this is true, but really, that job status is an IRS definition of how they are not an employee of their brokerage. This status gives them freedom from “reporting to work” and defines how they are taxed, but I’d argue that it’s time for a change in this thinking.

You won’t get the IRS to change your classification, but a change in mindset might be beneficial to your business and income. Try on this hat and see if it fits: Solo-prenuer. Yes, it’s a real word used to describe people who run their business single handedly and take full responsibility for the outcomes. Sound familiar? A Realtor isn’t an entrepreneur because they don’t have a marketing team and accounting team and a distribution or manufacturing system… you typically work alone. In the case of a team, it’s still typically being directed by a single person.

Solo-prenuer embodies the lone-wolf nature of a Realtor, the creative brilliance of your research, the personalized marketing and the individuality of your brand are the trademarks of your business. You put on your “me against the world” clothes every day, personalizing everything from head shots to listing presentations. You’ve already accepted the fact that nobody’s going to do it for you, your income is uneven, and both good and bad decisions rest squarely on your shoulders. So, own it! Be your own boss, reprimand yourself when you need it, reward yourself excessively if you deserve it. Your schedule is flexible and you don’t have to worry about HR reprimanding you for wearing tattered jeans. You can hire and fire clients at will and your decision-making doesn’t include several levels of management. You can pivot on a dime and you have a higher earning potential than an hourly worker. Embrace the insanity of your “job” and BE the boss you always wanted to work for.

Regards,

Kyle Snyder
ksnyder@firstam.com
720-534-8355

It’s beginning to feel a lot like Christmas…except for the green grass, warm weather and no snow. Wait for it…winter is coming.

In January of this year, we started off at 19.3% fewer sales for the month/year, compared to 2016, and it looks like we will end up in roughly the same place when this year is over. That deficit in total sales eventually crept back to being only down by 7.3% in August, only to see the gap widen since then despite strong October sales. In fact, there have only been two months this year (May & October) where we have registered more single family closings in a month compared to the previous year. And we all know the total sales are about 5% fewer than they should be due to lack of data share. I was hoping to have that back on by now to go back and add those numbers in to get a real apples to apples comparison. Nonetheless, we still have an extremely strong market that will show about a 10% average price gain over 2016 when all the numbers are in.

Longmont Single Family and Attached

The biggest surprise in the numbers this month are the decreases in median and average sales price of attached homes in Longmont. We haven’t seen negative numbers in a long time. So what’s up? It’s very simple, there were no sales of those higher priced attached properties in the SW by Silver Creek HS, nor any from the 55+ community at near Hover and Mountain View. The SW project is nearing its end and you will see a bunch of those close soon, so these numbers will go back up despite the fact that the Hover project is closed out. Of the 30 closed attached sales last month, exactly 15 of them were the latest addition to the Summerhawk condos at 9th and CR1. And of the 69 total listings I show in the report, there are 46 (or 67%) of them under contract, leaving just 23 active attached listings in Longmont and 9 of those aren’t even built yet. Yes, just 14 active attached homes available in Longmont that you can move into in 30 days. This is about 3 weeks of inventory at this time of year.

Longmont’s single family inventory is almost just as tight, but the prices keep climbing on a year-over-year basis. The solid nature of the single family prices this month are extraordinary. In November, 12 homes sold for $300k or less, which is tied for the most in a month this year. Just that alone should bring the average price down just a bit, but couple it with only one home that sold for over $1 Million and an average of 99% list-to-sale price, you can see how the average and median are not being bolstered by a bunch of high sales either. Demand is still very strong in Longmont. Of the 226 active and U/C listings in my report, only 81 is not under contract and about 14 are to be built. Yes, 67 active single family homes in Longmont that you can move into in 30 days. This is about 30 days of inventory for this time of year.

First American Title crew representing at the BizWest Boulder Valley Real Estate Conference L to R: Kyle Snyder, Gavin Higashi, Dori VanLone, Brandon Smith

November 2017 Longmont Area Sales Statistics (.pdf)

November 2017 Longmont Area Sales Statistics (.jpg)

Boulder County Plains and Carbon Valley

The stats that come out of the Boulder County Plains are always a surprise to me. Their prices have more peaks and valleys than Colorado has 14ers. Their peaks are determined by how many $1M+ homes sell each month. In November there were 8, which is about average, and only one was over $2M. The interesting thing about this area is the floor. In November, the least expensive house sold was $360k. And it usually has the highest inventory. Right now, of the 231 active and U/C, 165 of them are not under contract, which is about 4 months of inventory.

And last but not least, the Carbon Valley. Of the 51 closed homes, four of them (or 7.8% of closings) were under $300k. Compare that to Longmont’s 12.6% of closings for the same price point. Also interesting: 13 of 51 closings (or 25.4%) in Carbon Valley were brand new homes and 72 of the 144 actives are not under contract – about six weeks of inventory.

Last week I attended the Boulder Valley Real Estate Conference that BizWest put on every year. As always, it was excellent. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist from NAR spoke and addressed real estate bubble concerns head on. On top of reiterating the fact that this market is built on wealth and not credit, he also pointed out we have 30% fewer sales and 53% fewer housing starts than we did before the crash in ’08. John Covert of Metrostudy backed up Yun’s comments with a great talk about vacant developable lots throughout the region. It’s impossible to summarize all he said, but townhome construction is making up a bigger percentage of new starts than ever before and because Boulder County is one of the more constrained areas for housing, things are not going to get any easier.

Rant of the Month

New feature. Hoping to help you with your business.

I have overheard several Realtors engage with potential buyers and sellers recently. Those potential clients still ask the worst question possible “How’s the market?” The problem I have is the response I keep hearing from Realtors. They respond with a head drop and an eye roll and say “Sloooow”.

Slow is a relative term and it means nothing to the consumer. If this is a seller, does this mean they shouldn’t list now because it’s slow? If they are a buyer, does that mean they have plenty of options out there because it’s slow? Is it slow compared to summertime or fall or what? Slow tells them exactly nothing besides the fact that the Realtor they are speaking to isn’t doing much business at the moment.

The fact is, I have plenty of clients who are NOT slow, and in fact they are very busy. The market is normal. It’s normal for this time of year. It’s normal for the current economic climate. It’s normal if you consider the interest rate environment. It’s even normal for the lack of inventory.

I challenge everyone who reads this to think twice before answering this question from potential clients. How about “How’s the market?” You answer: “There is a lot of opportunity out there, why do you ask?” There are opportunities to list and sell your home. There are opportunities to buy if you are qualified, have a down payment and are patient. There are new home opportunities. There are opportunities to buy the home of your dreams. Investment opportunities are a little thin right now, so patience is the key on this front.

Think of the positive aspects of the market we have. Nobody can do anything to change the current market, so embrace the challenge of securing a new client who may buy or sell with you. Prove to them you are the right person to help make their dreams come true. Now, go back and re-read the stats, get those numbers in your mind and head out to a bunch of holiday parties and take advantage of the opportunities you have to secure buyers and sellers for the upcoming year.

Cheers,
Kyle Snyder
720.534.8355
ksnyder@firstam.com

Happy Monday and Happy Fall y’all! The stats are ready and I have a couple of other things for you that may be of interest. Grab another cup of coffee and get ready for a beautiful week ahead.

There is so much red (negative numbers) on this month’s report, it looks like it’s bleeding. Red colored numbers are good when they are next to the Days on Market results, but not so much on the rest of the report. The numbers are so drastic I am going to have to look into a couple more items for next month because something just doesn’t seem right. The things I’ll bring to you will be a look into the amount of new home sales and I’ll even take a peek at the sales only being reported in REColorado.

In the meantime, the biggest topic of discussion is how things are slowing down and what an odd year it’s been for home sales. The market is moving in fits and spurts, and completely unpredictable. Remarkably, this is the first month since January that the average sales price of a single family home in Longmont has dipped below $400k. And even more amazing is that it is exactly one year ago when the September 2016 average price first broke $400k to set an all-time high water mark. Overall, average and median prices are still strong and higher than last year in all areas of this report… they just aren’t rising as fast as we’ve seen in the past four years.

First American Title Ribbon Cutting

September 2017 Longmont Stats (.pdf)

September 2017 Longmont Stats (.jpg)

We are still three months until the end of the year, but I want to point out one thing about this months’ graph. The graph is only showing the number of closed sales each month over the past 10 years. The first thing that’s easy to notice is the height of each of the peaks. The height this year, compared to last, is not much different. The last two years, compared to the previous four, are obviously lower and we attribute this to both rising prices and lower inventory. But if you look at the width of this years’ data, it’s very narrow. If you could see the data behind the graph, you’d see that it’s actually the lowest Year-to-Date total since 2011.

Where is this market headed? Obviously I don’t have all the answers and there is no magic pill to understand it. However, there is one yearly event I never miss to help in my understanding of what our future holds. If you’ve not been to the Boulder Valley Real Estate Conference put on by BizWest, you are surely missing out on the very best event of the year. This can’t-miss event always has a very light showing of Longmont area Realtors and I just don’t know why. Yes, it’s in Boulder, but it covers every part of our market and every town in Boulder County. It isn’t a bunch of CE classes, it’s in-depth analysis of what drives our residential and commercial markets. Every professional should be there. Believe me on this one and get your tickets here: http://bit.ly/2wBx1aX.

The last item I have for you has to do with the possibility of Amazon coming to Colorado. I’ve thought about what would happen if they moved to the proposed Louisville location. That move would turn this region on its head. Here is a good news story that will make you think about the depth and breadth of the possibility: http://bit.ly/2yucjOT. The Denver Post had a great article on this topic that you can read here: http://dpo.st/2hReCEr. We are now possible victims of our own success.

Enjoy the snow,

Kyle Snyder
720-534-8355
ksnyder@firstam.com

Every month, in the days leading up to the time to put stats together, I ponder what kind of new chart to create to compliment or display the data the best. Sometimes, when hurried, I’ll just update the chart from the previous year. Other times, I’ll have something in mind, but the chart from last year is actually a better idea than the one I had. What you’ll see in the stats report this month is an updated chart from last year that shows almost the opposite of what was going on a year ago. This makes my job so much easier and more interesting.

Last year, when I first published this chart, it was titled “Show me the Slowdown”. It was specifically built to show how there was no discernible slowdown in sales… even though many people felt that way. Last year, the chart clearly showed our monthly single family sales totals were at or above the 5 year average for the first seven months of the year. It’s a different story in 2017. In six out of the first seven months of this year, our monthly sales totals are below that of 2016 AND all seven months are below the trailing 5 year average.

Bing Crosby’s old house on the 14th hole at Pebble Beach. Annual Taxes $72,762.44!!!

There are a couple of obvious reasons for the sales totals to be trending downward. The first probably has less impact than the second reason I’ll propose. The first is declining inventory levels. We are still trending downward in inventory, so the market is still getting tighter. New construction now makes up about the same percentage of the active market as it did last year, so that piece isn’t as much as an impact factor as it was in 2016 since new construction was just coming online about a year ago. Pricing is most likely the biggest factor in the slowdown of sales we are seeing. Median and average sales prices are still outpacing 2016 even though the average sales price for the month is less than it has been for the past several. When wages aren’t increasing it makes it tougher and tougher for people to buy more expensive housing, so they are just not participating as much.

July 2017 Longmont Stats (.pdf) 

July 2017 Longmont Stats (.jpg)

Inside some of the numbers you see in the price grids you can find some interesting information. For starters, and I don’t usually lead with info from Area 5 or the Boulder County Plains, but look at that average sales price. It’s just a fuzz under a million dollars. This average of $928,733 is bolstered by 17 homes that sold for over $1M. Additionally, there was a 13,000 sf home on 20+ acres, just west of Hygiene, that sold for $5.9M!

Surprisingly, of the 108 total sales of single family homes in Longmont, 83 of them closed for $300k or less. That is one of the highest totals of lower priced homes selling in a month for quite a while. This activity in the lower (who’d ever thought we’d refer to under $300k as the lower end of the market?) end of the market is the primary impact factor in dropping our monthly average sales price down about $20k from its recent high in May of this year. Even with the impact of lower price homes selling, the monthly average in July approximates the YTD average home price.

We’ve spoken before about the ever increasing sales and sales price of attached homes in Longmont. The continued impact of new construction in this product is the primary driver in the significantly higher sales price. There were 6 new condos sold over at Hover Place that closed between $381k and $441k and a single, what appears to be a half-duplex that closed for $520k in Prospect. Those seven sales represent half of all sales that exceeded the average price for the month.

As promised last month, I updated the YTD sales totals in each area to reflect the monthly clean up that IRES does at the end of each month. And, we are still kind of not looking too closely at the Carbon Valley market since it doesn’t include a significant number of closing due to the lack of data share with REColorado, but in general, pricing is holding steady.

Thank you all very much for reading. I hope you continue to find value in this stats report. And lastly, I am being asked a lot about my new job at First American Title. Our office is open and running smoothly. Orders are coming in, closing are happening and we are all enjoying ourselves very much. First American is an excellent company and they have simply impressed Jennifer, Lenise and me every step of the way. Please let me know if you would like to meet so I can share even more.

Thank you very much for your support.

Kyle Snyder
First American Title Insurance Company
Account Executive
720-534-8355
ksnyder@firstam.com