September 2013 sales were up 41.8% over last year! At a time of the year when sales begin to cool off, it appears there isn’t much that can stop this market right now. Sure the contracts closed last month were written pre-flood, but the number of contracts we have at Land Title right now, scheduled for an October closing, don’t show any kind of dramatic drop off…this thing could keep right on rolling.

I have sales numbers that go back to 2004 and this September’s total of 112 has only been eclipsed by 115 in ’06 and 119 in ’04…but there was a lot more new construction back in those days. It’s good to see some new construction happening in the city and surrounding areas, but today’s report only shows 1 new construction property sold. We all know that isn’t what is really happening because the builders don’t list all their properties in the MLS.

September 2013 Longmont Stats
View Report as .pdf

Again, this trend isn’t just a local phenomenon. A recent report by shows this past September was just as huge in the Denver Metro Area. This was also their 3rd best September, ever! It’s my opinion that when high sales volume and low inventory are a widespread occurrence, it’s much more sustainable than if it were contained in one town, county or region. This said, we are yet to see the real impact on this market from the recent floods. There is loss of savings and buying power for those who had damage to their home. They may not be able to either buy or sell for many months, so that eliminates a number of potential participants from the market. Their homes may be stigmatized because they were flooded – even if it was a 1,000 yr flood, and what will that do their values? There are a lot of unknowns in regard to the flood, but there are still a lot of homes, that had no damage whatsoever, that may be even more valuable now…possibly pushing prices further upward.

At this point, there is nothing that can stop the Longmont market from having its best year since 2006. My advice is to go back and act like it’s 2006. Call the people in your database who have been in their house since then. Ask them if they are OK from the flooding and, knowing they have been in their house for 6 or 7 years, see if they are ready to list their house. Price it right and there may be a paycheck ready for you in a couple of months.

I forgot to publish The Predictor last month. It showed 100. I thought that would be a little high, but what do I know? October says 104. What do you think?

Kyle Snyder