Happy 2020 everyone! I started the year by cleaning up my email distribution list for this monthly email. If you haven’t received this before, feel free to unsubscribe now or read on for a few months to see what everyone is talking about. My lists had become crisscrossed, so a lot of people who were supposed to get this weren’t. Operator error, I’m sure.
When you look at the January 2020 Longmont Area Stats you will not see is a repeat of the super-ugly graph, I made last year. It was a heat map inspired by the stats maven of Denver Metro, Megan Aller. It just didn’t turn out good. I replaced it with a very boring graph on inventory, which may be very revealing of what the market may bring to us this year.
Before we get to the stats, we have Video! The third video about our First American Title office is ready. If you liked either of the first two, you are gonna love this New Video!
Sign up for this event to learn the Secrets of Denver’s Top Listing Agents. I read the invite; I know the speakers and I’m going to attend. If you can’t make it, give me a shout after the event and I’ll share some of what I learned.
Sunny with a Side of Stats (I’m changing the name every month to have some fun) is my monthly stats presentation at 300 Suns. Be there this Thursday (2/6/2020) at 3 pm. We will give a bit of an extended version of this stats information and I will reveal the 2020 Heat Map. The Heat Map answers two very important questions for your clients: When is the Best Time to Sell my Home AND How Long Will It Take to Sell My Home. Both pieces of information are invaluable to setting expectations in a changing market. This will be the only place you will be able to get this information this year. Mark your calendar to attend this event every month. Here is this year’s schedule.
Now back to our regularly scheduled stats review and 2020 predictions… The Longmont Attached market is the only area with significant red numbers and “significant” is a stretch when considering their implications on the market. There is just one other red number in the entire report, so let’s take a quick look. The real difference this year is quite simple: lack of new construction inventory and one expensive resale. Last year we had both, hence the lower inventory and ever so slightly lower median and average sales prices. A nothingburger or red numbers…
It is surely exciting to see 42.3% and 39.4% increases in the number of monthly sales in the Carbon Valley and the Boulder County Plains. Those results and the increases in both average and median sales prices are a good way to start the year. Honestly, I like the increase in inventory, and I think that’s where the real story is.
The graph this month shows inventory for every month over the past seven years. Take a close look at last year versus the three and possibly four prior years. 2019 had higher highs and higher lows indicating a trend upward in inventory. This should produce two outcomes we’ve spoken of before, higher days on market and higher sales totals.
The numbers along the graph line are each January inventory total on the bottom and the highest inventory total of the year on the top. This January we had the highest inventory total since January 2013. If the higher inventory trend continues throughout the year, I predict a 7-9% increase in total sales volume. Increased supply of homes for sale should also have the effect of keeping prices stable again in 2020 with a moderately low average price increase of 3-5%. Considering the insanely low, current interest rates, right now is an excellent time to buy a house.
Oh, and I forgot to include that one piece of information everyone asks for in last month’s report. The 2019 average sales price for a single-family home in Boulder was $1,247,100, which was a reasonable 2.57% increase from the previous year. That’s a mere 2.65 times the average price of a home in Longmont.