I’ve been anxiously awaiting these end-of-month stats from April. From all the calls and emails I’ve received in the past week or two, I can tell many of you have been as well. I’m sure for you Realtors out there it was in preparation for last Monday when y’all could start listing and showing homes again. It’s always good to be prepared, but now we have some solid numbers, so let’s get right to it.
So far, our local real estate market is showing its strength and resilience during lockdown. Three of the four segments in this report show fewer sales in April 2020 vs April 2019. This is astounding as I’d have guessed all four would have declined. Longmont single family and attached were down about 30% year over year… that makes sense. But the Carbon Valley, and I’m just going to give them their third straight Market of the Month award right now, actually has MORE sales this April than last! More astonishing proof of the strength in the market is, despite fewer sales in April, ALL segments of this report have a higher Year-to-Date (YTD) sales total.
I’d bet the decline in days-on-market is a surprise to everyone out there reading this report. It would make sense if a lot of people withdrew their listings, but I haven’t seen evidence of that, nor do houses that remain on the market factor into DOM for sold houses. Low inventory is much more understandable there were very few new listings for the 6 weeks preceding March 27th. Besides, who wants to list their house and have buyers traipsing through their home during a global pandemic? Who wants to list their house for sale during a global pandemic? As for average and median prices, their increases/decreases fell back into the plateau-ing pattern we predicted for the year… except for the BoCo Plains, which again is a special case in and of itself.
The updated graph shows monthly inventory totals in Longmont over the past 3 years and 4 months. The lowest inventory we experienced over this time period was in December (naturally) of 2017. My records go back to 2004 and we are currently at the second lowest April inventory since then with the lowest point as April of 2016. What does this say? It says that even during a statewide lockdown that has people wearing masks while alone in their vehicle, there is still a LOT of strength and demand for real estate in this market. For an excellent explanation of the overall strength in the real estate market, you should watch this video from First American Title’s own economist – Mark Fleming interview
Of the Longmont single family homes that sold in April, 25 (or 52%) of the sales for less than $500k closed for more than asking price. Only 6 (or 21%) of those that closed over $500k went for more than asking price. Twenty seven percent (6 of 22) attached homes sold for more than asking price. In the Carbon Valley 25 of 65, or 38% of all homes sold, closed for more than asking price. Each of these segments mentioned closed at an average of 100% of asking price. What does this tell you? It tells me there is still significant demand for homes under $500,000 and, in April 2020, 64 % of all sales in Longmont were below $500,000.
I’ve written about the greatest (and my favorite) real estate stats guru in Colorado, Megan Aller, before. Her report last Friday pointed out the current and impending problems in the luxury home market. The fact that jumbo loans are very hard to get right now is starting to affect their resale price. She has reported major price reductions of $250k+ and lenders have reported that to get a jumbo purchase loan today, a borrower may be required to put down 20-25% and expect to pay points. With much of Longmont’s sales below $500,000, our prices won’t suffer as much, but the BoCo Plains could present a different problem.
Out in the great expanse of the BoCo Plains, nearly 80% of all sales go for over $500,000. Overall, in April, the BoCo Plains closed at an average of 99% of asking price. The 10 highest priced homes closed for between $975,000 and $1,995,000. That group closed at an average of 98% of listing price, with 4 of the 10 closing for over asking price. Even when the cost of a jumbo loan goes up, it apparently doesn’t dissuade people from buying in a price range that may soon see some significant price drops.
I don’t know if I’ve proven my point of strength in this market, but I’ll leave you with these last two items: there have been over 80 new listings in the area since April 27th; and, I’m getting multiple reports of buyers getting into bidding wars.