Well it sure doesn’t feel like the first week of March. It feels more like the first week of April. I’m not referring to the weather. I’m referring to the frantic pace of business these days. In fact, it seemed to have picked up to a spring-like pace at the beginning of February. Rates are down; refi’s are up; sellers are listing, and buyers are buying. That sounds like the perfect formula for success in 2020!
Despite the new listings we see; the orders coming in our door and all the fun election/virus/stock market news we are flooded with every day, not everyone shares the same feelings of busyness. This is typical. Not everyone can be busy at the same time, but anecdotal reports from all over town point to an exciting year. Let’s look at the numbers in this month’s report to see what we can see.
The Longmont single-family sales results for February 2020 are a virtual repeat of January 2020… just a fuzz better. Monthly sales are higher-always good. Year-to-Date sales are up over last year. More goodness. Average days on market are up less than inventory (shouldn’t they be about the same?). And my two favorite stats (Average and Median Sales Prices) are hanging right where we want them for another year or so… up just a little. There just isn’t anything here to be concerned with, especially with low interest rates going into the busy season. Lots of goodness.
Longmont attached homes are another great story. The only slight concern is the drop in active listings. The drop in supply can pinch demand and push prices up in this category, which can then push prices up for single-family homes. It’s my prediction that when current attached owners see how much house they can afford these days, we may see some move up buyers, creating the inventory we need for first time home buyers to get into those attached homes.
The BoCo Plains area has a lot of red numbers in the grid compared to last year. The drop in Days on Market and drop in Inventory are of no concern at this point, but what about the 10%+ drop in both average and median prices? This is pretty easy to explain. The prices aren’t actually dropping, it’s that fewer $1M+ sales (7 in 2019 to 5 in 2020) are occurring. It’s a fickle market out there that can over-react because of its high price point and few sales, where just a couple of sales can create a big swing up or down.
The Market of the Month Award goes to the Carbon Valley! Who can argue with 40%+ increases in monthly closed units AND year-to-date closed units? Days on Market are dropping too…in February? Inventory is holding steady despite the higher sales volumes. The icing on the cake are the reasonable average and median price gains. Not every month can be perfect, but this is as close as it gets.
Now, please peek at the three graphs in the middle of the report. The first graph, on the left, shows the days on market and the most recent 4 months are represented by the light blue line. Three of the past 4 months have been below the 5-year average. Inventory, on the far right, is at its highest level each month over the past 5 years. The center graph is partial confirmation of my prediction of a 10% increase in sales volume this year. While not every month is the highest in the past 5 years, the total over those four months is and two of them are records! All of this is good entering March and the upcoming buying and selling season. Good luck to each of you in achieving your goals for this year.
Lastly, my stats presentation is this Thursday at 300 Suns. We are going to call it Sun of a Stat this month. We’ve been having a nice group show up each month. There is a good dose of deep stats and what it means to you, your business and your clients. This is followed by general discussion of whatever is on the audience’s mind. Bring a topic or add to one that’s going around. Some people get a beer, some don’t. Come early and/or hang out after. All said and done it’s an hour on a Thursday afternoon. Remember: 300 Suns, Thursday, March 5th at 3:00 pm. See you then. If you can’t make it this month, here are the dates of all future events this year. Put them in your calendar now so you don’t miss out. All will be held at 300 Suns at 3:00 pm on the dates below. I hope to see you there: March 5, April 9, May 7, June 4, July 9, August 6, September 3, October 8, November 5 and December 3