We’ve been living in a record setting real estate market for several years. Every time we set a record, we break it. Even amidst a global pandemic, we set records to the downside, only to set new ones on the recovery. I think I’m getting whiplash. Let’s see what surprises are in this month’s report.
First, the Longmont single-family market. In July, we closed on just one home under $300,000. It was the 14th such home sold this year. We also closed on only one home over $1,000,000. This says our average and median aren’t being adversely affected by a bunch of high or very low sales. They are very good indicators for a fairly balanced market that, last month, averaged just over $500,000 for the fourth time ever. Additionally, the 133 closed sales are the highest since 2011. Those results are surprising considering how low the inventory levels have been and the lock down restrictions we have all had to adhere to over the past few months.
How tight is inventory is right now? My report says 275 on the market, but that includes all pending, first right and under contract… because they aren’t closed yet. If you were a buyer looking for a home to move into in the next 30 days, you’d have exactly 78 active listings, in all price points, to look at. Not much. And this brings me to this month’s graph. It shows the relationship between inventory and days on market. We normally see our lowest inventory in December. This makes sense because most people don’t want to move during the holidays or when it’s cold and snowy. Our highest inventory is typically in the May-June area. This is also when days on market (DOM) starts to climb. The far, right side of the graph clearly indicates that the end of summer transition could be starting with inventory dropping, DOM rising and the two lines crossing. My hope is that we see a resurgence of inventory for a little while like we did in October of 2018.
The Longmont attached market looks a bit anemic compared to the rest of the report. But consider the fewer days on market as an indicator of strength. Additionally, last year there were 6 new construction homes sold in July. This year there have been only 12 new construction attached homes sold in Longmont. At this point in 2019 there were 28 so the lower monthly and yearly results are mostly due to fewer new construction projects.
The Boulder County Plains area has always been a wild card. The sales prices are all over the place so it can be hard to gauge its current status. It’s easy to predict what will happen below $430,000 because that seems to be the floor in pricing seeing how the least expensive home to sell was $432,950 in Erie. In fact, there have only been a dozen homes sell in this area, this year for under that price. Meanwhile, there were 20 closed at more than $1,000,000… in July! It’s a very top-heavy market with very little affordable options. Despite that, home sales are hopping with a gigantic 61% increase in sales volume over last year. And remember, least year was a very good year.
It’s official, after 7 months of 2020, the Carbon Valley has locked down the Market of the Year award. This area has been the market of the month all year so far and has outperformed all other areas, even during lock down! Another 47% gain in sales volume; 15% year over year closed volume; 5% higher median price gain and a 9% average price growth… all with lower inventory. The results aren’t a direct result of new construction as there are only 18 more sold this year than last. This stuff should not be happening. I have a sneaking suspicion that this area is finally maturing into its own sustainable real estate market.
Bonus Stat of the Month
In Longmont, in July 2020, the following price points closed at the corresponding List to Ask Price:
$350,000-$450,000 – 101%
$450,000-$550,000 – 100%
$550,000-$650,000 – 99%
$650,000-$750,000 – 97%