The joy in “Stat-Land” (where my mind lives…part-time) is starting to set in. The trend predicted by myself, the esteemed LAR President, Dave Wagner, and few others is slowly coming to fruition. Steady, normal numbers for the final four months of the year will reveal the full story. With exactly 2/3 of the year behind us, with the high selling summer months memorialized in pictures that are still in our cameras, and with my proclamation of outright enthusiasm for the market still fresh in my mind, we have arrived at the doorstep of what represents a solid foundation of “recovery”.
Just two months ago, at the end of June, we had our highest volume (non-stimulus) sales month in Longmont in 27 months (109). But we were still nearly 23% behind last years’ sales volume. In the two months since, we saw July produce 111 sales and trounce last year by 82% and August beat last year by another 60%, all the while overtaking the sales total of 2010 by 3.5%. The only factors that could derail this train from here on out are: interest rates and government stupidity. I feel that we are fairly safe on the interest rate front…
Yes, our world mostly revolves around Longmont and what is happening here, but the bigger picture paints an equally rosy picture. Longmont’s attached dwelling numbers are good; the Boulder County Plains are even better; while the Firestone, Frederick and Dacono (FFD) numbers are absolutely spectacular! Over the past couple of years, all areas have suffered to differing degrees, but the FFD area has been hurt the worst in the region, mainly because it isn’t as large, isn’t as established and relies more on a “bedroom community” for it’s resale support. As of right now, the FFD area only needs more 50 sales in the next 4 months to break their sales total (354) from both of the last two years and they have a realistic chance of breaking their sales total of 405 from 2008! Going in the right direction? I think so.
One last note. The Predictor was a bit off for last month. It predicted 104 sales for August and we only came up with 88. My best guess on this is that the data goes back so far that it hasn’t caught up to one significant change in the past three years… kids are going back to school earlier. The proverbial breaks are usually put on in the market by this one simple, yearly event, which has moved back to mid-August from its previous start in late August/early September. The graph in the middle clearly shows this. This is the first time The Predictor was off significantly since its inception back in October of 2010. I’m confident in my number for the remainder of the year.
September Predictor says: 78. Go get ’em tiger!