Have you heard the old saying “a high tide floats all boats”? It basically means that when one rises, all rise, or what’s good for one, is good for all. I’m sure that is what we are seeing in this month’s graph. I wanted to see how the Longmont single family market, the Longmont attached market and the Carbon Valley single family market were faring compared to each other. I originally plotted the same data shown here for the Boulder County Plains area, but the numbers were so much higher that it distorted the graph too much to get a good look at what was happening.

We have discussed in the past about the limitations of using Average Price to pinpoint the details of a market. As a trend indicator. Average Price has a lot more usefulness, although it still suffers from the same limitations. Over time, it can’t help but tell a story of momentum because it eventually represents all segments of a market. The only real proof or example I have of this is The Predictor, which in general, is built on an average of averages. Having created this formula, I understood it’s limitations and it has been off by as many as 34 sales in a single month. However, over time, the averages kick in and it has only been off by a net of 8 sales over the past 3 years. The same concept applies to the graph here.

If you take a look at the graph this month, I drew a line through the middle of the first leg of each data set and connected it to the middle of the last leg. Now take a look at the slope of each line. Stick with me, this will not turn into a trigonometry lesson. In general you can see the lines of Longmont and Carbon Valley single family homes are on the same trajectory and increasing at the same rate. The value increase in Longmont condo units has been less over time. So, as an investment goes, a single family home has appreciated more rapidly since 1/1/11 than an attached dwelling. Not a real surprise, but we never really know these things for a fact until we see it plotted out like this.

Take a look at this. Average condo unit prices were as high or higher than they are today on at least 8 occasions over the past 3 years 9 months. Spiking can naturally happen when a sample size is smaller…like the monthly Longmont condo market that generally doesn’t break 30 units a month. How many high sales does it take to move this meter higher.

081_L_Maroon_Bells_Fall_ColorsSeptember 2014 Longmont Area Stats
Residential Highlights

  • Longmont Average Days on Market Up to 60
  • Inventory increasing in ALL areas.
  • BoCo Plains monthly Sold UP 46.2%
  • Carbon Valley Sold YTD UP 12.9%

Click here for .pdf file

Now this. It’s odd that the Longmont average sales price dips every 7 months and the Carbon Valley average raised to touch or almost touch the Longmont line. It happens all the way across this chart and it happens every 7 months exactly except for one time where it happens at 6 months.

And this. The last odd thing out there is that the Median and Average price increases in the FFD section are exactly the same at 19.4%. After nine years of doing this, I’ve never seen that. The same number is bound to happen sooner or later, but the 7 month thing…creepy.

Speaking of creepy. Halloween is the last day of the month and on a Friday this year. The good news is that it’s not on a full moon. Just the same, have fun but be safe and go scare up some business to close this winter. And if you want to start talking about your business plan for next year, this is the perfect time to begin thinking about it.

Kyle Snyder