In my 12 years writing about local real estate statistics I’ve mentioned several time how much I love doing it. I’m a stats geek who loves looking deep into the numbers and I guess I’m foolish enough to write what I think for public consumption. But honestly, the last few years have been a little boring because it’s been the same story month in and month out… low inventory and record-breaking prices. It’s more exciting when things change. Hold on because there is a lot to talk about this month.
First things first. Open the link to the stats below and check out the graph. It isn’t a work of art by any means, but there is a change that you should be aware of. Inventory has gone up dramatically. In fact, we are at the highest inventory point since 2013 for the beginning of May. It may be half of what it was in 2008, but I don’t think the buyers will be sad to see this. Inventory is up 25.6% over this time last year and instead of sitting on 1 to 1.5 months of inventory, we have just risen to a whopping 3 months of inventory. That still puts us in a seller’s market, but the burden of paying over asking price for a home is slowly slipping away.
In February of this year I wrote, “In this market, higher inventory will produce higher days on market and more sales”. If I’m not mistaken, that is exactly what we are looking at in nearly every area of this report. Inventory is up, sales are up and days on market are up. Another prediction I made for this year is the flattening of prices. To define flattening again, I don’t think prices will drop, they just won’t increase as much. Look at the +/- for each median and average sales price in the report, strangely the deltas range from -6.1% to 6.0%. This is starting to look like flattening to me.
Inside the numbers time.
Don’t fret for one second about the average days on market for the Longmont attached. 92 days on market and a 95.7% increase look frightening. What isn’t evident is that 10 of the 33 sales were new homes and all of them were over 93 days on market with one (in Fairview Condos) was at 302 days on market. The funny thing is that there were 3 others in the same complex that sold for the same price at 1 day on market (typical for a builder). If you remove all 13 of the new attached homes, the average and median prices stay within $7,000 of what’s in the report, but the days on market drops to a reasonable 62 days.
The Boulder County Plains area is pushing hard to hit the $1 million average again. The current $930,000 average was paced by the 13 sales that went for over $1 million. Only one of those sales was over $1.9 million and it came in at a cool $4.76 Million. Now that’s how to boost an average price point.
Speaking of million-dollar sales. The Carbon Valley had a rare one sell last month. It was a beautiful property in Pelican Shores that went for $1.4 million. On the other end of the spectrum, there are five lucky Carbon Valley residents who were able to purchase a home for under $220,000. That’s fantastic that they were able to find a home in this increasingly less affordable market.
In Longmont, here is a very good lesson to bring to all of your listing appointments. It’s a perfect example of what a discount broker brings (or doesn’t bring, in this case) to the table. Go check out the recent sold listing at 725 Gay St. It was originally listed for $715k; it sat on the market for 206 days and recently closed for $555k. That house was on the market 5 times longer than average and those sellers took $160,000 less than their original list price. I’m not one to criticize agents, but in this case… I’m sure you can reach your own conclusion…
Last thing. It’s crossed my mind that I might have what it takes to be a Realtor. I grew up here. I know people. I have skills, so why not give it a run? Well, like many people entering the business, I fear taking the leap out of one career and into another, so I’d like to keep my day job until I can build a book of business. That sounds reasonable and I know many people who have done it successfully. The problem is, I can’t. I’m not allowed by First American Title. Why? Simple. If I were to go out and secure a listing, I would then be in direct competition with my own clients. It’s a conflict of interest. How can I be working for you if I’m competing against you? Another problem would be if we got into an earnest money squabble… awwwwk-ward. There are too many possible downfalls to this that it isn’t even a consideration. Plus, who would write this interesting stats piece in my absence?