Thank you all for the great responses to my last stats report. I guess you like the chunks of data from within the data that I went through. Great… because I’m doing it again. There are some interesting things that came up from my analysis. Most importantly, carve out 8 minutes to listen to the Megan Aller video I linked at the end. She is so smart and does a lot of in-depth analysis that both supports what I have been preaching and give you insight into why these things are happening. You will not be disappointed.
Let’s jump right in to an interesting item I uncovered in the Carbon Valley. We all kind of assume that the lowest price home sells the fastest. Even a condemned property sells relatively quick because of the high investor appetite. Last month a single-wide in the Glens of Dacono, where they own the lot, sold for $177,800. It was on the market for 220 days and they only came off their original list price by about $20k. Obviously the market had a hard time seeing value. Interesting fact: 12 properties (20% of the market!) in this area were on the market for less than 10 days and their average price: a whopping $436,650. That’s $20,000 higher than the overall average in the area. Both items mentioned from the Carbon Valley point to buyers prioritizing value over price.
The Boulder County Plains area is a totally different story. Here, there were 12 properties sold for over $1M, including 2 over $2M and the most expensive at $3,075,000. There must have been good value in that highest price property since it was only on the market for 83 days. The lowest price sale was $430,000… more than the average sale price in the Carbon Valley! Random fact: 8 homes in this area were on the market for less than 10 days and sold for an average price of $610,068.
Last month I said again how higher inventory will produce more sales, which will then result in more days on market. Another outcome I mentioned was flattening of prices due to demand being partially satisfied by the higher inventory. The proof of my assertions couldn’t be more evident than in the single family and attached home results in Longmont last month. Look at the stats report and you’ll see inventory took a huge leap, up nearly 26%. Days on market, yup, huge leap of around 32%. Monthly sales, you guessed it, major increases. Now look at the median and average sales prices… flat.
In the Longmont attached home group, days on market seems to be climbing fast. When we look at the May 2019 sales total, it increased by 69.2% over 2018 to 44 units. The reported increase in days on market seems like a fair trade-off for the higher sales. But, of course, that isn’t the whole story. Looking closely, the 7 highest priced attached closings were all brand new construction. Each one of them has a days on market of over 102 days and a high of 334 days. I’m guessing those days on market were skewing our report, so I eliminated them from the list and recalculated. Without those seven new construction properties the average days on market for an attached home in Longmont was 38 days. So, should we be concerned about the DOM number?
Of the 112 Longmont single family sales last month there were 18 that were on the market for less than 10 days. Again, buyers saw good value in these homes to put them under contract so quickly. The average sales price of those 18 homes is $414,539. Even the 15 homes that sold for over $600k only averaged 51 days on market. The highest priced home sold last month went for $1,069,900 and it spent just 16 days on the market. Value sells.
Last thing. Let’s look at the graph. We see how many homes are sold each price point since January 1st for both this year (red) and last (blue). With price appreciation there will continue to be fewer and fewer homes showing up in the four furthest columns to the left. But the volume hasn’t just shifted to the right as it looks on the graph. It’s a volume increase as well. Year-to-date, closed sales are up 50 units in 2019 vs last year and 45 of them are in the price points between $300k and $450k.
Thank you all for reading. Now click here to listen to Megan Aller.
And here is an update to an article I linked in a previous story – Millennial Guide to Saving Up and Moving Out
Cheers to Summer!