Where to start this month? I guess I’ll begin with a few astonishing numbers that showed up in the October stats. I call these numbers astonishing because of what I wrote about last month. In the 30 days since I sent the September stats out, I received more positive calls and emails about that report than any other in my 14 years of doing stats reports. The perception of the market having slowed hasn’t changed in the past month, and neither has the fact that it hasn’t.
On exactly zero planets is it considered to be slow if sales are up 16.5% month-over-month (MoM). Similarly, it will never be considered slow if year-over-year (YoY) sales volume is up 8.1%. Both data points are true for October 2019 in Longmont for single-family homes. A reasonable person can’t even make the argument that Longmont attached homes are slow last months’ sales were up 33.3% (OMG!!!) and year-to-date sales are up 13%. The good news stretches all the way out to the Carbon Valley with Firestone, Frederick and Dacono all up MoM and YoY. The only laggard in the bunch is the BoCo plains where their YoY sales total are down 8.2%, or, an unnoteworthy 45 units.
Additionally, median and averages sales prices are up, up, up in every area of this report. This is good news for home sellers, but let’s be realistic here, they aren’t up huge. Last month, some of those median and average prices were down. It’s a roller coaster of average and median prices we live in and I think they are giving the market, and industry professionals, a little anxiety. Really, there is just one thing to remember, your friend and local stats savant (me) was right. If you go back to the January 15, 2019 post on my web site you will clearly see where I called three specific things for the market in 2019. They are: 1) higher inventory levels; 2) more days on market; and 3) flatprice appreciation.
If you look at the days on market and number of active listings in the October report, you will see that they are solidly up in every area. They have been just like this all year long… nothing new here. But now that we have 10 months of the year in the books, I’m happy to report to you that, year to date, average price of a single-family home in Longmont is up just 1.4%. This is significantly lower than the +9.5% in 2018, +10.2% in 2017 and +12.5% in 2016.
Lastly, let’s not forget to talk about the graph. I think this’ll be the last time I use this graph. I just don’t like it a lot. It’s a depiction of the monthly average home price in Longmont versus the Carbon Valley; with marks that point to the five Octobers; and a logarithmic trendline through each data set. Fun, huh? The number one thing I can tell you is that in almost 5 years, the difference between the two logarithmic trendlines has gone from an 8.33% difference to a 17.4% difference. Or, since the beginning of 2015, the price of housing in Longmont has increased at a greater rate (9.07%) than that of the Carbon Valley.
What to expect for the end of the year? At least one turkey dinner; about 150 additional single-family home sales; hopefully one more round of golf; average price to end the year flat compared to last; and interest rate to remain low. How to take advantage of this? Make sure your clients have their credit in tip-top shape, so they can take advantage of the low rates when they head out to buy a home next spring. Because of low interest rates and higher inventory, I think the buying season starts a fuzz early next year, March 15th, or the Ides of March, if you know your Shakespeare.