Posts tagged Longmont Real Estate Statistics
The joy in “Stat-Land” (where my mind lives…part-time) is starting to set in. The trend predicted by myself, the esteemed LAR President, Dave Wagner, and few others is slowly coming to fruition. Steady, normal numbers for the final four months of the year will reveal the full story. With exactly 2/3 of the year behind us, with the high selling summer months memorialized in pictures that are still in our cameras, and with my proclamation of outright enthusiasm for the market still fresh in my mind, we have arrived at the doorstep of what represents a solid foundation of “recovery”.
Just two months ago, at the end of June, we had our highest volume (non-stimulus) sales month in Longmont in 27 months (109). But we were still nearly 23% behind last years’ sales volume. In the two months since, we saw July produce 111 sales and trounce last year by 82% and August beat last year by another 60%, all the while overtaking the sales total of 2010 by 3.5%. The only factors that could derail this train from here on out are: interest rates and government stupidity. I feel that we are fairly safe on the interest rate front…
Yes, our world mostly revolves around Longmont and what is happening here, but the bigger picture paints an equally rosy picture. Longmont’s attached dwelling numbers are good; the Boulder County Plains are even better; while the Firestone, Frederick and Dacono (FFD) numbers are absolutely spectacular! Over the past couple of years, all areas have suffered to differing degrees, but the FFD area has been hurt the worst in the region, mainly because it isn’t as large, isn’t as established and relies more on a “bedroom community” for it’s resale support. As of right now, the FFD area only needs more 50 sales in the next 4 months to break their sales total (354) from both of the last two years and they have a realistic chance of breaking their sales total of 405 from 2008! Going in the right direction? I think so.
One last note. The Predictor was a bit off for last month. It predicted 104 sales for August and we only came up with 88. My best guess on this is that the data goes back so far that it hasn’t caught up to one significant change in the past three years… kids are going back to school earlier. The proverbial breaks are usually put on in the market by this one simple, yearly event, which has moved back to mid-August from its previous start in late August/early September. The graph in the middle clearly shows this. This is the first time The Predictor was off significantly since its inception back in October of 2010. I’m confident in my number for the remainder of the year.
September Predictor says: 78. Go get ’em tiger!
Click here to see the report: July 2011 Longmont KS
Longmont area sales look pretty impressive this month versus 2010. I told you this would happen several times – do you believe yet? The Predictor also has turned out to be a pretty darn accurate tool as well. Where do we start this month? There is so much going on and even more that I have discovered… so let’s begin.
First of all, the July sales total exceeded The Predictor’s number of 101, again confirming my outright optimism for the market. Secondly, July saw its highest monthly sales total in four years! This fact alone should not be taken lightly. We had no incentives to drive this market, so it is a view of our “new normal” and a leading indicator of a positive future. Thirdly, this is the fourth month in a row that the monthly sales totals have exceeded The Predictor – which is built on 8 years of averages and trends. And lastly, the yearly sales total is exceeding The Predictor by 4% so far this year versus 2010 indicating an above average performance for the year…again a positive for the market. All of the other markets in this report are acting similarly. Look closely – it’s beautiful!
Now some observations and facts. Last month I viewed all of the listings sold in Longmont and noticed a large number of out of town brokers in the list. This month I dove deeper into the data. I did it a few days ago, but the two additional sales reported since I looked will not affect the point here. Of the 109 sales I looked at, here is what I found:
Longmont Agents Listings Sold = 56
Longmont Agents Buy Sides = 53
Out of Town-ers Listings Sold = 53
Out of Town-ers Buy Sides = 56
Odd, isn’t it? It is perfectly believable that Out of Town agents would have a lot of buy sides. That is from people moving into Longmont. But, for Out of Town agents to have nearly the same number of listings as Longmont based agents is mind-boggeling. The typical response from agents is that they are listing all the REO’s and Bank Owned properties. This just isn’t true. There were 14 bank owned sales in Longmont in July and only 8 of them were sold by out of town agents. There were 2 HUD homes sold last month, both by out of town agents. There were about 4 that were misidentified as “Other Owner” that we’ll throw in for good measure, so that brings our total back up to 14 “distressed properties” listed by out of town agents…a far cry from 53; leaving 39 listings out there worth a little over $9M and representing about $250,000 in commissions that left town. Bummer.
I have several clients who are busy. Those who are the busiest are working with both buyers and sellers. I have also run into a number of agents who won’t touch a short sale (listing) with a ten foot pole. I definitely understand this, but this is a seller and a chance to make a commission. If you don’t want to mess with one of these, fine. But find yourself someone locally to refer them to. You still have the chance to make a check from this and take care of a friend or client in need. The icing on this cake is that the local economy benefits all the way around…and so do you.
The Predictor says: August = 104
If you recall my stats commentary from last month, I said “If we come even close to what The Predictor says for June, I will officially change my stance from optimistically neutral to outright positive.” I am officially positive on the market now.
In June, Longmont had the highest, non-incentive-ized sales total since August of 2008! It blew The Predictor out of the water and beat it for the third straight month. Sure, the overall sales total is down for the year, but we have talked about this before, last years’ are tax credit fueled. We are 5% ahead of 2009 on total sales YTD. This doesn’t mean that we will continue to skyrocket anywhere. It simply means we have reached some kind of balance where reasonable sellers are finding qualified buyers who are willing to invest in today’s market. A better description might be: we have finally found our new “normal”.
The sales totals beating The Predictor is exactly what we want to see. By the way, The Predictor said 95 for June and we reached 109 – a 12.8% margin. Beating the averages and setting sales records over some of the worst economic times is a true victory for our housing market. We are headed in the right direction. Here is an article from Bloomberg that even says so: http://tinyurl.com/42fhw92 …and that’s national news. So, if it’s getting better out there, it’s definitely getting better around here. We sink before the coasts and we rise before they do…it happens every time. Don’t let your buyers sit on the fence any longer. Get them to believe. Get them to commit.
If you would like some help to reach your goals, find creative solutions, and maximize your opportunities, let Land Title be a part of your solution. Give me a call or an email any time to set up a confidential meeting.
For July, The Predictor says: 101
Good news, good news and more good news for May of 2011. First, the good news…all that garbage you have been reading about the housing market has nothing to do with Longmont or most of the rest of the Denver Metro real estate market. Sure we have our challenges, but doom and gloom be damned. If we come even close to what The Predictor says for June, I will officially change my stance from optimistically neutral to outright positive. I’ll change because of the more good news…May of 2011 had the highest sales total since June of last year. Furthermore, May’s 90 solds blew The Predictor’s estimate of 73 out of the water! Even further, average and median sales prices are up along with nice increase in inventory. Talk to your lender too, those interest rate have not moved up like they were supposed to – qualified borrowers are still staring down the barrel of 4.5%! This all adds back up to “this is the best time in a generation to buy a house”.
I had a Realtor client tell me the other day she had 6 offers on a house. Another Realtor had 23 people show up for an open house. Two others had three competing offers on a property. Another Realtor got a contract after just 8 days on the market. These are some things that we haven’t seen in years. They are not indicative of the market as a whole, but they are signs of health…and really, isn’t that all we really need? What we don’t need is skyrocketing valuations and liar loans. I don’t know much about “shadow inventory” either, but I do know the Notice of Default list has gone from an average of 12 a week down to 5 a week over the past several months. That said, fewer bank owned properties are hitting the market, increasing this overall health. Yes, I like to live on the rosy side of the glass, but this, albeit anecdotal, evidence is mounting.
Predictor Says: 95 in June.
Do you remember 2009? The first part of that year was very similar to the start of 2011 so far. But in 2011, we are actually running at about a consistent 16% less volume each month compared to 2009. That kind of statistic brings out either the groans or the fangs. The question of whether that is good or bad is also raised. I kind of think there is a correlation between the two. Those who groan see only bad. The ones who bear their fangs start to drool. The difference is not just an attitude or confidence. The Realtors who are drooling are doing so because they know that there will be plenty of pessimism in the marketplace. They know the groan-ers will not be the do-ers. And the simple formula of mixing 50% enthusiasm, with 50% action and 50% consistency will net them another successful year.
I have been counseling lenders for 8 months to pick up their phone and make appointments to take every Realtor they know out for coffee. I’ve been advising Realtors for 6 months to pick up the phone and call everyone in their database to check up on their kids, dog, work and family. All this in preparation for 2011 when business is going to be its toughest in years. How many have listened to my advice? Not many. The few who have, found a gold mine sitting in their database. Think of all the Realtors and lenders who have left the business over the past 4 years. Who is marketing to their database? Nobody. Think of all the Realtors and lenders who have cut back on their sphere marketing programs over the past four years in order to conserve money. Who is marketing to their database? Nobody. There are a LOT of free-agents out there wanting to buy or sell a home who don’t have a go-to industry professional. To be successful in 2011 you have to be the one to find them and it is going to take a LOT of work.
Sales are still occurring out there. There are only 41 fewer sales in Longmont versus 2009 and we are only 25 behind where The Predictor says we should be for the year. The ugly negative numbers in this report are still being compared to the fake, stimulus fueled numbers from last year. The stimulus ended on June 30th of last year, so it won’t be until we report the August numbers in September when these largely negative looking numbers will disappear. I am available for confidential meetings to discuss your business strategy, work habits, brainstorm or otherwise assist you in helping you develop new business so you can have a successful year.
Predictor Says: May = 73
The new rule for the next three months is…NO FREAKING OUT! In this report and the following three you WILL see some seriously negative numbers. The Longmont sales numbers are going to look bad, but as I always try to point out with this commentary and observation, there is always more to the story than just the numbers.The sales volume we are experiencing right now is only slightly behind where The Predictor says we should be…to the tune of about 8%. The Year To Date sales volume compared to last year is double that, and the monthly sales volume is 4X that at over 33%! The good news in this story is that last years’ numbers were fake numbers. At least that’s what I call them because there is no correlation between those stimulus-fueled numbers and reality. This is true for both single family and attached homes in Longmont.
The sales that are occurring in Area 5 between Longmont and Boulder are truly impressive. How in the world can there be a 50+% increase in sales YTD? Talk about pent-up demand… This was the strongest area in all of Boulder County even last year. There is not huge volume in the $1M+ home market, so people must be finding real value in that half million dollar range. A little south of the half million dollar range is the Tri-Town area of Firestone, Frederick and Dacono with super strong sales last month. Keep those two outlying areas on your radar when showing properties to clients so that they too can take advantage of great pricing.
Predictor for April = 61
January 2011 Longmont KS Well…this is a link to the new, updated Longmont Real Estate Statistics report that went out last week. It took some work to re-do the format while preserving the data behind it that isn’t shown in the graph. I’m kind of a perfectionist with some things and this is one of them. Do I need to fiddle with it to make it look better?