Oh my! Days on market (DOM) are rising. Average prices are dropping. Offers aren’t coming in by the dozens the first weekend on the market. All of this can mean only one thing: the sky is falling.
You may not believe this, but these things are normal for this time of year. You may also experience some of the following symptoms: fewer showings, seller anxiety over longer marketing times, downward price adjustments, and quite possibly, less than full price offers. It is fall, but I assure you, the sky is not falling.
It’s funny, but agents go through this fall panic every year. The leaves change and the business mix changes. This year is no exception, but for some reason it feels different, doesn’t it? I think the reason it’s because the activity in the late summer months never really slowed down. We never eased gently into fall/winter. We had 122 closings last month, which is actually very high for October. So, what you feel is the lower number of October showings and contracts, which will be reflected in November’s closings. We will have to see how this one works out because The Predictor has us down for 105 sales, which would be a record November. Who knows anymore…even the trends are trending away from trends.
Our good friend inventory, or lack thereof, will keep us warm and insulated from a cold winter. A quick check before I typed this showed the 266 Active and Under Contract in this report is only 113 Active listings. Of those 113 active listings, there are 23 under construction, leaving just 90 homes for sale in Longmont. Heck there are 83 condos for sale. Even with the talk of the Fed raising interest rates, it won’t change inventory and there will still be a shortage of homes in town. The inventory issue will not be going away soon. My best guess is there is at least another year of steady prices and tight inventory.
October 2015 Longmont Area Stats
- Boulder Avg Price in Oct: $952,916!
- Longmont Active SFR Listings: 90
- Carbon Valley Avg DOM: 50
- BoCo Plains Avg Price: +23.4%
- Longmont ATD Oct Closed: -41.9%
This month’s graph is comparing the January through October Year to Date sales totals. The line is just a 2 period standard deviation trend line that I just figured out how to add. I think we have a decent shot at breaking the 2004 all-time high sales total. We are 11% ahead of last years’ sales total on single family resales and that is the lowest increase in this report. Boulder Count Plains is up a healthy 13.5% and both Longmont Attached and the Carbon Valley are both up nearly 40% in sales volume alone. Those are flat-out crazy numbers.
Forrest Gump said, “Crazy is as crazy does”. The average prices around here have been described by some Realtors as insane. Count your blessings and realize there is no insanity here in Longmont. It’s located about 10 miles south by southwest of here (Boulder for those of you who are directionally challenged). That’s where the Average Price of a home in October of 2015 is: $952,916! And here is the really funny part… their days on market = 66. The average price in Boulder is almost 3 times higher than ours (2.86 times to be exact). Prices are lower in Longmont than in any of the following nearby towns of: Berthoud, Mead, Lafayette, Louisville, Superior and Erie. So, since we are surrounded by crazy high prices and low inventory, our insulation grows thicker. I am now extending my prediction of a healthy, steadily rising, tight inventory, low DOM, and strong sales volume market to two years.
Would somebody please mark down these predictions? I need to know if I’m anywhere close on this stuff. I try to track them, but this is a pretty easy target. November of 2017 things will start to cool off, both literally and figuratively. Thanks for reading. I hope y’all have a great Turkey Day.