My experiment this year with using different charts each month to show a different facet of our ever-evolving market has left a few of you scratching your heads at times. Well, it sometimes leaves me scratching my head trying to come up with something substantial to chart and then discuss here. In this attempt to diversify, I think some of the basic elements have been overlooked for a while now. That basic element is: how do we compare to last year, the year before, or some other simple comparison. Novembers chart is back to basics.
I continue to hear opposing tales of business activity. It has been happening all year it seems. On one side Realtors are telling me that they are having their best year ever, everywhere they turn there is another deal, they can’t find houses for buyers and other typical signals of a good business environment. On the other hand, some Realtors are wondering who turned off the spigot because their business has dried up significantly since last year. Why is this?
If you look at this month’s report you will see the YTD numbers in each area are fairly close to last year. If they were all added together and reported as one giant area, you would see that the overall sales in the entire local market is only down by 0.77%. Yes, that’s less than 1%. So, we can see that the proverbial spigot is still flowing like oil and gas in Weld County.
Even into this early winter season when business typically drops off like a rock, we still have a lot of momentum and overflow demand from the lack of inventory over the summer months. I’m pretty confident the demand is still there because of a little used metric that is even more important these days with such low inventory. That measurement is of the ratio of ALL (Active, Active/Backup, & Pending) listings to those that are just active. The higher the percentage of under contract shows greater demand. Today, you will see following under contract percentages:
Longmont SFR – 50.4%
Longmont Attached -55.9%
BoCo Plains – 35.9%
Carbon Valley – 44.4%
November 2014 Longmont Area Stats
- Longmont Area YTD Solds down 0.77%
- BoCo Plains Average Sales Pricve up 20.7%
- Carbon Valley YTD Solds up 18.0%
- 98 Active Resale listings in Longmont
- Santa is Coming. Yay!
Historically, the above numbers should be around 30%. The extraordinary part is the numerator in each of these calculations, or the number that represents the Active Only listings, which are, in the same order: 123, 30, 180 and 109. Things get even crazier when I tell you that 25 of those 123 in Longmont are new construction or to-be-built. This, my friends, leaves us with a grand total of just 98 houses in Longmont that are not under contract.
Lastly, I’d like to point out the nearly identical Median and Average sales prices for Longmont and the Carbon Valley. Sure the Longmont numbers have cooled off from their highs this summer of about $319k, but when is the last time you have seen these two areas so close? It’s the supply/demand pressure that pushes the perceived value spectrum from west to east when prices rise in the west. Think Boulder to Longmont for an easier example. Some people would rather drive 30 minutes from Longmont to Boulder than pay the housing prices over there. Others will pay nearly the same amount of money for a bigger lot in Weld County than pay price (and taxes) in Longmont.
I hope this little discussion brings us all back to familiar territory and solidifies your market knowledge for the year. We won’t speak again until after the New Year. Please take a second look at this report and bring this info and your Christmas cheer to your holiday parties and use it to impress the pants off your friends to get us some listing for next year.