Back in January of this year I make a couple of predictions about the Longmont real estate market in 2019. I also tried to describe what I mean by prices flattening. Both were typically long-worded explanations. I now have a very good visual and a single number that will hopefully clarify. In order to see what I’m writing about you need to click on one of the links below to see this month’s stats piece.
If you look at the blue graph, the line is a two-period moving average. From 2013 until 2018 the line is quite steep. This means that the average price for the first half of the year is rising quite
sharply. Now look how the line flattens from 2018-2019. Prices are still rising, but less quickly. In fact, the increase from 2018-19 is just 2.31%…which is a far cry from the 2016-17 increase of 13.24%!
Taking a closer look at the activity from this past June, it’s a repeat of last month and virtually every month this year. Higher sales, higher inventory, higher days on market and higher median and average sales prices. Yes, there are some red numbers, signaling a decline, but percentage-wise, they are small except for the monthly sales of Longmont attached housing and single-family resales in the Boulder County Plains. The overall Year-to-Date (YTD) sales for attached homes in Longmont is up over last year and it’s such a small data set that there will be large monthly fluctuations.
On the other hand, the Boulder County Plains may be starting to experience a kind of price stress or fatigue. A leading indicator to me is their monthly closings and YTD sales are both down sharply in one of the busiest months of the year. Additionally, the least expensive homes sold in this are were priced at $410,000. Both were in Canyon Creek in Erie. There were also 11 homes sold between $1,000,000 and $1,995,000. This is a little reminiscent to what happened in Boulder two years ago when the average price dropped slightly. Only time will tell.
The Longmont single-family market is downright affordable compared to the BoCo Plains. The least expensive home to close in June was a mere $305,000 and the top was a nice home in Creekside that went for $895,000. Interesting bit of info from June closings, three subdivisions tied for the most active resales with six each. They are: Spring Valley, Longmont Estates and Fox Creek. Maybe some of these areas might be good farming targets… just a thought.
Last item really quick. First American Title is hosting a Crayons to Calculators collection box for the next few weeks. If you like to support this cause to get school supplies to needy children in the area, please swing by to drop off your items. You can find more information at www.crayonstocalculators.org. I’ll get you a report on how we did when the collecting has ended. Until then – happy summer. Stay away from the hail.