Settle in and cozy up next to a fire because we have a lot to talk about here. The summer madness is gone so I spent some time doing a little extra research on this month’s stats piece…plus it’s cold outside today.
We have all gotten a little tired of my exhortations of how great the market has been this past year. Well, it’s cold now and we all know how things slow down in the winter. It’s typical, normal, seasonal fluctuations like this that make Realtors nervous, particularly if they had a good year. If we reflect on the year, the market and how its structural stability has solidified, we will see there is probably another good year ahead of us.
Let’s start with the results from November. The Predictor that I invented is based on past monthly increases and decreases and, based on October’s results, we should have seen a dip of about 13%. That’s what normally would happen. Not this year. Not only did we dip just 2.2%, we closed more sales in Longmont this past month than any November in the past 7 years. In fact, we beat the sales record for the past 7 years in 4 of the past 5 months and 7 out of 11 months of this year. This is great, but the most interesting number I uncovered was the Average Sold Price from November of 2007. It was $275,438…exactly $230 less than November of 2013. Our prices are just now returning to 2007 levels and we have 148 more sales this year than that one. Plus, the rationale here is that, technically, more people can afford to sell their home. List it and sell it baby!
On the crazy side of things are the Days on Market (DOM) and number of Active Listings. Homes are selling after an average DOM of 55 – in 2007 that number was exactly double that at 110. And with just 255 Active Listings and 91 sales last month we have just a 2.8 month supply of homes…and that is a conservative number because for this report we use all actives. If you take out the Active/Backups (A/B) we have just 153 homes available…or about 1.7 months of inventory. If the Predictor is correct with 96 sales in December we will be facing a real shortage of homes to sell if y’all don’t use your time wisely at all those Christmas and New Year’s Parties to get some of your friends to sell. For another point of reference, in 2007 there were 680 homes on the market.
November 2013 Longmont Area Stats
- Highest YTD Sales Total since 2007
- 15.8% Increase in Median Sales Price ($249,000)
- 19.0% Decrease in Active Listings (255)
- 9.3% Increase in Average Sales Price ($275,668)
- 32.9% Decrease in DOM (55)
There are clients of mine who focus on the Area 5 section of this report because they sell a lot of homes on acreage. Those numbers don’t look so great. They look good, but not astronomical like the other areas. It’s my contention that they suffer from the Seasonal Activity Disorder (SAD) more than most markets because of their naturally higher price point. There are currently 41 homes in Longmont that are listed at $400,000 or more and over the past 3 months 36 have sold for over $400k (87% sold). In area 5 (generally the open area between Longmont and Boulder) November saw 37 total sales with 24 of them being over $400k. In that area there are currently 155 listed for over $400k and over the past 3 months just 46% or 71 of them have sold. Even though twice as many of them sell out there every month, there is a lot more on the market and so, naturally the Days on Market, and sales price will accelerate less during the slower winter months….even in an up market.
That’s all I have. Email me and let me know your thoughts. And go buy a small sledge hammer to pound all those signs into the frozen ground this winter.