Two of the biggest names in title insurance are joining together to bring blockchain to the title insurance industry. First American Financial announced Wednesday that it is launching a shared blockchain system to be used in the title insurance process. And the first company to sign on to use First American’s blockchain system is Old Republic Title Insurance Group, the nation’s third largest title insurance underwriter.
Read the full article: First American, Old Republic Title bringing blockchain to title insurance
Article is from Housingwire
Ladies and Gentlemen, Realtors and yes, Lenders too; below are six upcoming classes that you need to know about now. See below for links and descriptions. Whatever you do, sign up for something right away before they are all full.
- The first one speaks for itself, but the teacher is the key here. Scott Hamling is the head of appraisals for Cherry Creek Mortgage and he has a way of relating this to the things you do in your real estate business.
- The SHIFT is a book written about how to prepare you and your business for a shift in business. And since everyone can feel a shift coming, this is a perfect time to take this active reading and working class.
- Navigating the Short Sale? Yes, we have seen a few of them recently and there is a lot to know if you have never done one.
- Redline Contract class is to show you the difference between the old and new contract in Colorado. This is a real plus to get ahead of the game before the new contract goes in effect on January 1, 2019.
- Goal Setting for Success is taught by business/life coach extraordinaire Alex Gil. It’s a great time to plan your success for next year.
- And the Boulder Valley Real Estate Conference is my most highly recommended real estate event of any year. Every year, I always learn more there than at any other real estate event I attend.
Taking Back Control of the Appraisal Process
Date: Monday, November 5th
Time: 10:00 am – 1:00 pm
Instructor: Scott Hamling
Location: Keller Williams 1st Realty, 606 Mountain View Ave, Longmont, CO 80501
CE Credit: 2 CE Credits
Would You Rather be Lucky or Prepared? The SHIFT is coming!
Dates: Mondays – Nov. 5, 12, 19, 26, Dec. 3, 10, 17, Jan. 7, 14
Time: 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm
Instructor: David Rusaw
Location: Longmont Association of Realtors, 420 Kimbark St., Longmont 80501
CE Credit: None
Cost: $25 REALTORS®/$30 non-REALTORS® (includes book for each participant)
Navigating the Short Sale
Date: Thursday, November 8
Time: 10:00 am – 12:00 noon
Instructor: Damian Wise
Location: Keller Williams 1st Realty 606 Mountain View Ave, Longmont, CO 80501
CE Credit: None
Redline Contract Review
Date: Friday, November 9th
Time: 9:00 am – 12:00 noon
Instructor: Damian Cox
Location: The Fox Hill Club, 1400 E. Hwy 119, Longmont, CO 80504
CE Credit: 3 CE Credits
Goal Setting for Success
Date: Wednesday, November 14th
Time: 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm
Instructor: Alex Gil
Location: Steps Real Estate, 455 Main Street, Longmont CO 80501
CE Credit: None
Boulder Valley Real Estate Conference
Date: Thursday, November 15th
Time: 8:00 am – 4:00 pm
Location: Embassy Suites Boulder, 2601 Canyon Blvd, Boulder, CO 80302
CE Credit: 6 CE Credits
Cost: $74.49 (Until Nov 11, then $84.49)
Give me a shout if you need any more information.
Last week I was interviewed regarding a sad anniversary in our community. A house exploded in Firestone a year ago due to a gas leak. This story aired last night on the 1 year anniversary of the explosion that killed two men on April 17, 2017.
I am happy to report that there is no discernible impact on housing prices for this neighborhood. This is great news for a community that has already been through so much.
Give me a call if you want the details.
The 2017 Longmont Housing Affordability Review has been released. You will notice the measuring stick for affordability has been updated since the market had outpaced our static numbers established in 2013. Yes indeed, prices are going up. New information and studies show that homes are relatively more affordable than in the past. Please read the report here: http://bit.ly/2GbH8LO
For questions, please contact either Kyle Snyder or Amy Aschenbrenner using the information below.
First American Title
Longmont Association of Realtors
Since there isn’t much to cheer about in regard to our beloved Broncos, let’s just focus on the real estate and all we have to be thankful for. One thing I’m thankful for and look forward to receiving is the yearly NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. It was just released and you will do yourself a huge favor to read (or at least flip through) it. NAR collects tons of data and they are getting much better at making it meaningful. I noticed several new and changing trends in my first quick look, but I’ll have to add this 144 page document to my holiday reading list.
In our local real estate market, I’m thankful for a strong market where prices are still trending up, days on market are settling in at around 60 days, and active listings are somewhat stable, albeit low. The attached October report clearly shows our markets are doing well. Last month I was looking at the data and seeing some discrepancies I promised to research. One was new home sales. Well, pulling data from the county records didn’t help. We have more new home sales reported in IRES than I could find in the county records. The more I looked, the more I realized that many of those homes sold are still categorized as vacant lots because their tax status hasn’t been updated. Nonetheless, we have nearly 90 new home sales reported through IRES. I’m sure that is lower than the actual total, so I’m thankful we have some representation in our numbers.
Each area in the stats report shows an increase in both median and average sales price. Home owners and sellers like seeing this trend. Buyers… not so much. The good news is that in Longmont single family home sales in October, there were actually 8 homes that closed for under $300k and the highest was only $807k, so the average isn’t being skewed by several $1M+ homes like we’ve seen in the past. The Longmont attached homes are just about the opposite. Three of them sold for over $500k with the most expensive at $659 and the least expensive being $195k.
I am always thankful for the graphs I’ve created for you in the past. I can update them or put a new twist on an old graph. I updated this months from a couple years ago. It shows the monthly average sales prices for Longmont versus the Carbon Valley. The graph starts in January of 2015, the only month on record where the average in the Carbon Valley was higher than Longmont. You can see the average prices climb for each area, but I also added a linear trend line that clearly shows the Longmont prices outpacing those in Firestone, Frederick and Dacono. Most reasonable people would attribute this to Longmont being in higher demand due to its proximity to Boulder. If you think otherwise, let me know.
It’s less than two months until the New Year. We all know that listings and sales start to drop off for the winter at this time. We also know that now is a great time to start reflecting on the results from the past year and plan for next. When you start your planning and want to kick your business into a higher gear, feel free to bring me into your research and planning. I’m a small business consultant with many avenues, ideas and tools for you to consider. First American Title is a company that partners with several marketing companies to bring you new ideas, reasonable prices and streamlined processes to your marketing efforts. Feel free to contact me any time to see if I can bring some fresh ideas into your business.
Happy September to all. It’s football season again and that means we get to see our beloved Broncos back in action. Just like kids going back to school, it seems to come earlier every year.
Last month we reviewed the noticeable slowdown of sales. Remember, this is a slowdown in sales volume only, at this point. With low inventory plaguing us for the past three years or so, overall sales have resembled a sluggish economy instead of an expanding one. Granted, employment rates are at their highest point in several years and incomes have not risen in tandem. Maybe that will come next because a normal reaction to high employment (or low unemployment) is that employers need to pay more to retain good employees. This happens mainly because it’s cheaper to retain a good employee than lose their productivity and go through all the hassle to find and train their replacement. Fingers crossed on this happening.
The graph I recreated this month is a follow up to last year’s graph from September, except this time, I included the data from both years. The results are very interesting and I think they graphically show what we all have been thinking about home prices in the area. If you look at the graph and focus on the 2016 numbers, it almost appears they have all shifted up one price range for 2017. In essence, this means that in 2017, sales have increased in every price range by about $50,000. This data is for the full year 2017 from January through August.
Since I had the data right in front of me, I updated the Year-to-Date (YTD) average sales price for single family homes in Longmont for 2017. As of the end of August, the YTD average sales price in Longmont is $425,758. As you may recall, back in January of this year, I made a prediction about the market and what it’ll do (look at the last paragraph from my post: http://bit.ly/2wcGjcd ). I said I’d eat my sock if we had only a 5% increase in prices over the course of this year. At this point we are sitting at an 11.23% increase. I guess all of you who told me to invest in some sock butter better think of your penalty for doubting.
As far as our local markets go, the biggest story is the continued rise in Longmont attached dwellings. A year ago we saw higher inventory and days on market due to all the new construction of townhomes being priced so high and sitting on the MLS for a long time during construction. Well, listings are way down and so are days on market. Prices are still climbing and so is the overall sales activity. As stated before, these homes now represent the affordable end of the market. This fact is proven by the higher sales totals every month and YTD. The shocking part of this is that the average price is still hanging around $340k!
I hope you enjoyed the summer. Mine was an interesting one that simply didn’t have enough golf involved. I’m OK with that because the move to First American Title has been nothing short of amazing. Jennifer, Lenise and I would like to thank those who have chosen to use First American for their title and closings. The support has been heartwarming and we are all settled in to our new office. Stop by some time for a quick tour and maybe we can grab a cup of coffee a couple doors away at Ziggy’s. You can find us at:
First American Title
512 4th Ave, Suite 102
Longmont, CO 80501
The number in the monthly chart of biggest concern in recent months has been that of inventory. The total active single family listings in Longmont is starting to climb, as it is in the BoCo Plains and the Carbon Valley. Attached dwellings in Longmont dropped a bit, but this is common when prices begin to creep up because these properties, and their associated price point, now represent the affordable sector of the market. Average days on market has remained consistently low in the region over the past four months. I think we will remain on a precarious ledge if sales volume continues to climb through the summer and listing volume doesn’t continue to crawl upward.
This month’s chart was a lot of fun to put together. Yes, I’m a bit geeky that way, but what it shows is even more interesting. Take a close look at it before delving into the information below, it will surely help you follow my ramblings.
July of 2007 is the baseline for the chart since that’s as far back as I have complete data for all three trend lines. The trends here are obvious and the relationships are interesting. For instance, the yearly peak in monthly sales (blue line) is about every July and the trough, or low point, is every winter (Nov-Feb). The trend line for inventory was a chart I presented here a few months ago and it raised a lot of eyebrows around town. It’s amazing that today’s sales volume is nearly the same as it was in 2007 and we are doing it with just 40% the level of inventory.
We can continue to talk about inventory and sales volume until I’m blue in the face, but buyers and sellers seem to focus on average price. As a former appraiser and stat geek, I think this is a misguided focus, but here it is…represented by the red line in the chart, so let’s talk about it.
- Monthly Sales Volume UP 14.7%
- Tied record LOW Days on Market – 52!
- Average Sale Price OVER $300k for 4 straight months!
- Longmont Attached Average Sales Price $214,337.
- Carbon Valley Median Sales Price UP 20.9%
This chart is a comparison of monthly results against that which existed in July of 2007, so that date becomes our baseline. This approach works well to show trends. But, was July of ’07 high, low or special for any particular reason? No. It’s just a starting point that happens to be when business was still pretty good and the trend lines are relative to that point in history. If you understand this you will get the fact that there are some inherent limitations to this, but the data is valid and so are the trends.
An interesting trend line validation is the fact that November of 2008 shows the lowest point on the graph for average price (red line), which happens to coincide with the lowest monthly sales total (blue line), which also coincides with the mortgage meltdown that occurred the month before in October of 2008. So, relatively speaking, it doesn’t matter where the trend lines start, they are still representative and valid.
Since this chart takes monthly data and plots it against one particular month in the past, single month spikes and dips don’t matter too much. However, if we can see consistent movement in a general direction we have a trend. Here, I’d like you to refer to the chart and the general upward trend of the red line from about February 2011 until now. This tells us that we have had advances in sales price over the past two years. I would also like to point out the recent level of the red line above the our horizontal baseline since March 2013. I’m thinking that price increases are a good thing for most people. Possibly not the best for buyers, but it is obvious by the action of today’s market that buyers would rather be buying into an up market than a down one as evidenced by the general downward slope of the graph between 11/08 and 2/11.
Last thing here. Please refer back to the predictive dips in the blue line (monthly sales) as you do your business planning and budgeting each year. Just as the high volume of today is predictable, so is the shortage of business in the winter months.
When you think of choosing a Title Insurance partner think of Land Title, we have been locally owned and operated since 1967, with 100% of work produced in our 40+ Colorado offices.
It is with a heart filled (finally) with blue skies and a head filled with dreams of golf that I wish you all a happy Spring! There is joy in nearly all nooks and crannies of the real estate business right now. Look at the record sales for April; the low inventory that is pushing prices up; the high sales activity in the outlying areas; what more can you ask for? The Realtors, lenders, appraisers, inspectors and title companies are all busy. Sellers are getting more than they were last year. Buyers are paying more, but they are still paying less than they were several years ago, so they are still getting a bargain – in an UP market…that’s the best of all worlds.
There are a couple of things that seem just out of place in this month’s report. The first is the low number of sales in the Longmont Attached Dwelling market. Part two of this issue is the dramatic median price increase. I took a peek into this situation and found a little data to explain these phenomena. First of all, the low sales total is a direct result of low inventory on the low end…it just isn’t there to sell. If you think there is low inventory on lower priced homes, the inventory of lower priced attached homes is minuscule. And, why do some people choose to buy an attached homes, besides some of the convenience factors? Price. And if there are none to sell, none will be sold. I believe that is our current scenario.
A little deeper look into the sales prices of attached homes in Longmont does not prove that this low inventory is the sole factor in driving up the prices. It’s more of what has been presented to me several times as: it’s more a representation of where the activity is. If there are no lower priced homes to sell, and only higher priced homes sell, does that mean that prices have risen because of the average and median going up? No. It just means there is more activity in the higher price points, thereby driving up the numbers. Proof of this is in 2012 there were 11 attached dwelling sold for under $100k in the 1st quarter of the year. In 2013 there were 3.
Get the full report below
The last “concerning” issue is that of the median and average sales prices in Area 5, the Boulder County Plains. They just seem a little low and out of step with the rest of the report. This area is all the land between Longmont and Boulder – minus Gunbarrel. In this area there are a variety of properties, from small shacks to multi-million dollar estates, which includes Lyons, Erie, Longmont, Niwot and some of Lafayette. It’s the proverbial smorgasbord of real estate and less homogeneous than say, a city. The following numbers may lay your concerns to rest: $422,272 for 2012, and $444,000 for 2013. Those are the Year To Date median sales prices for the area. Fret not my friends, it’s just another one of those monthly swings, which are most extreme in this particular area. And here are the averages for the record: $525,734 for 2012 and $561,768 for 2013…nearly identical increases in both metrics.
May 2013 Predictor says: 128 single family units sold in Longmont. April was 109 and we easily handled that one with 111 sales.
Let’s go back in time to the year 1985. The first Top Ten list by David Letterman premiered. Back to the Future was the top grossing film. New Coke was launched and failed. The Titanic wreckage was found. The first version of Windows came to market. “You Look Mah Va Lous” was a popular catch phrase. Your truly graduated from high school and the average price of a new home was $89,330 and mortgage rates were about 13%.
How things have changed. In terms of housing inventory we are seeing levels lower than they were in 1985, even with a population that has increased by one million. In February 1985, in Metro Denver, there were 17,308 unsold homes on the market. As of February of this year, only 6,786 homes were available in the Denver market.
Here’s to looking “Mah Va Lous” in April!
February – 2013 Longmont Real Estate Market Update
If you need a copy of the most recent information on the Longmont market, please click here to go to this story on my web site: Longmont Stats Report
On the lighter side of the Longmont real estate business… This past week there were a couple of people in the Times-Call that you may know.
First of all, Damian Wise, a Realtor at Keller Williams here in Longmont we pictured with his daughter at the Hobbit Holiday at the Longmont Public Library. You can see Damian and his daughter Mallory (in the orange stripes) in the picture to the right.
Then, the other day we have (pictured below) Clark Colwell. Clark is a junior and the third son of Mary Colwell at Wright Kingdom Real Estate here in Longmont. He is the one in green playing for the Niwot Cougars. Legend has it that he blocked the shot pictured.
How fun to have your picture in the paper. I hope everyone has a wonderful weekend.
I was hanging out in downtown Longmont this morning, seeing some clients, making a stop at Ziggy’s, and all these people were going in and out of a building carrying boxes. Upon further review, it was the Realtors at Re/Max Alliance moving into their new office space. (Here is some info on their move from the LDDA). I got the – not ready for prime time tour and this space is going to be awesome…exposed brick walls, welcoming entrance and lots of that old building, downtown charm. They are located just two doors east of Ziggy’s at 512 4th Avenue. Give them a few days to get moved in, then drop by to say hello and get the tour. Pictured below, standing in front of their new office space, from L to R are: Chris Martinez, Tom Pringle, Steven Noel, Erik Ingvaldsen and Erik’s better half, Jennifer Ingvaldsen
The creation of LongmontTitle.com was a long and slow process. I built nearly everything you see here myself. Not only was it a huge challenge, it was very interesting and fun for me. It’s always interesting to figure out and learn something new. It also came with a lot of frustrations, a delayed launch and remaining work to be done. I have many people to thank for helping me out with this project. I ask a lot of questions and there were a lot of people who took the time to share their wisdom and knowledge with me and I can’t thank them enough. If you get into a project like this…ask a lot of questions.
First and foremost, I’d like to thank Joe Bennell at Metro Brokers here in Longmont. He is way smarter than I and he helped to really get this project off the ground. You can find him at www.longmonthomes.com or email@example.com. Also, Josh Hunter, Joe’s partner at Metro Brokers answered a lot of questions for me. Josh has a lot of knowledge in the social media arena and you can find him at http://joshhunterhomes.com or firstname.lastname@example.org.
I got a lot of help from another guy who owns a web marketing company called the Blue Fire Group. Paul Eastwood answered many, many questions, encouraged me to figure stuff out and pointed me in the right direction several times. You can find Paul at www.bluefiregroup.com or email@example.com.
The lady who helped me out in a pinch was a former Land Title employee Trudy Schaefer who built a couple of items for a reasonable price and is the only person I paid while tackling this web site creation. Another very smart woman who helped me out when I couldn’t figure out how to get an RSS feed to work (to post directly into FaceBook) Cecelia DeVilliers at Keller Williams 1st Realty in Longmont. She has a tremendous grasp of social media and the tools necessary for their integration. You can see what Cecelia is doing here: http://www.bocofyi.com or contact her at firstname.lastname@example.org.
And lastly I’d like to thank Jack Edson of Tour Factory. He is so capable that I recommended him to be the Technology Committee Chairman at the Longmont Association of Realtors (LAR) this year. Not only has he taken over for me after fours years, he has taken the committee to a new level and I can’t thank him enough for that either. You can find Jack at www.justoffpace.com or email@example.com.
Thank you all. I couldn’t have done it without you. I look forward to posting and having the word spread all over the internet because of you all.
We have all asked ourselves and others about when this market would return to normal. The problem with the question is that there is no standard definition of normal. To most Realtors and consumers, normal is a reference to a better time in the past when sales flourished, prices were climbing, and frankly, when business was a little easier to come by. Isn’t this definition a little skewed? That definition of normal is really only in reference to a time period between about 1999 and 2005. I would argue that six years does not define normal.
Many have argued that we now have to get used to a new normal. That is to say that we need to get used to something different than our previous definition. This may be the case when comparing that old normal time frame to an undefined time frame since. For a period of 5 years since 2005, that new normal was defined by falling prices, declining values and difficulty finding qualified buyers and willing sellers. In late 2010 we started to hear about a new normal of slower sales, steadying of prices with slower appreciation, buyers who need money to put down and sellers that may not be able to sell.
After building The Predictor, using years and years of data, I think I was able to better define normal through numbers alone. This is a normal that isn’t based on unrealistic expectations from past experiences. It was a normal built from pure analysis. The Predictor would have been useless during the first half of 2010 when we had the new home buyer tax credit, because that was not a typical market. And currently, the accuracy of The Predictor is probably being aided slightly by low interest rates. Despite the factors propelling the results, the current market activity is just slightly above normal…and has been for most of this year. I believe I made an outright optimistic proclamation of the market back in July. That still holds true for today.
Look at the results in the October 2011 Longmont area statistics and tell me where you an issue that gives you concern. The Predictor said 68 for October and we hit 72 single family residential sales for the month. Look at the other areas too, they are doing equally above normal (average). Take this to your clients and show them that they should have confidence in this market. The market and the economy will both take time to return to their previous levels, but in the meantime, we can say that this market is normal and we should all embrace it.
I just came across this information the other day and thought I’d share it with you. When is a Building Permit Required? …in Longmont? Check out this document that comes directly from the Longmont’s Chief Building Official Chris Allison. You can contact his office at 303-651-8332 with questions. Who knew you had to get a building permit to install a sprinkler system? Also, if you can call here to see if a building permit has been issued for an improvement on a house your client is buying or selling…like a basement finish. Thank you Bron Schuetze from Keller Williams 1st Realty for the information.
Click here to see the report: July 2011 Longmont KS
Longmont area sales look pretty impressive this month versus 2010. I told you this would happen several times – do you believe yet? The Predictor also has turned out to be a pretty darn accurate tool as well. Where do we start this month? There is so much going on and even more that I have discovered… so let’s begin.
First of all, the July sales total exceeded The Predictor’s number of 101, again confirming my outright optimism for the market. Secondly, July saw its highest monthly sales total in four years! This fact alone should not be taken lightly. We had no incentives to drive this market, so it is a view of our “new normal” and a leading indicator of a positive future. Thirdly, this is the fourth month in a row that the monthly sales totals have exceeded The Predictor – which is built on 8 years of averages and trends. And lastly, the yearly sales total is exceeding The Predictor by 4% so far this year versus 2010 indicating an above average performance for the year…again a positive for the market. All of the other markets in this report are acting similarly. Look closely – it’s beautiful!
Now some observations and facts. Last month I viewed all of the listings sold in Longmont and noticed a large number of out of town brokers in the list. This month I dove deeper into the data. I did it a few days ago, but the two additional sales reported since I looked will not affect the point here. Of the 109 sales I looked at, here is what I found:
Longmont Agents Listings Sold = 56
Longmont Agents Buy Sides = 53
Out of Town-ers Listings Sold = 53
Out of Town-ers Buy Sides = 56
Odd, isn’t it? It is perfectly believable that Out of Town agents would have a lot of buy sides. That is from people moving into Longmont. But, for Out of Town agents to have nearly the same number of listings as Longmont based agents is mind-boggeling. The typical response from agents is that they are listing all the REO’s and Bank Owned properties. This just isn’t true. There were 14 bank owned sales in Longmont in July and only 8 of them were sold by out of town agents. There were 2 HUD homes sold last month, both by out of town agents. There were about 4 that were misidentified as “Other Owner” that we’ll throw in for good measure, so that brings our total back up to 14 “distressed properties” listed by out of town agents…a far cry from 53; leaving 39 listings out there worth a little over $9M and representing about $250,000 in commissions that left town. Bummer.
I have several clients who are busy. Those who are the busiest are working with both buyers and sellers. I have also run into a number of agents who won’t touch a short sale (listing) with a ten foot pole. I definitely understand this, but this is a seller and a chance to make a commission. If you don’t want to mess with one of these, fine. But find yourself someone locally to refer them to. You still have the chance to make a check from this and take care of a friend or client in need. The icing on this cake is that the local economy benefits all the way around…and so do you.
The Predictor says: August = 104
If you recall my stats commentary from last month, I said “If we come even close to what The Predictor says for June, I will officially change my stance from optimistically neutral to outright positive.” I am officially positive on the market now.
In June, Longmont had the highest, non-incentive-ized sales total since August of 2008! It blew The Predictor out of the water and beat it for the third straight month. Sure, the overall sales total is down for the year, but we have talked about this before, last years’ are tax credit fueled. We are 5% ahead of 2009 on total sales YTD. This doesn’t mean that we will continue to skyrocket anywhere. It simply means we have reached some kind of balance where reasonable sellers are finding qualified buyers who are willing to invest in today’s market. A better description might be: we have finally found our new “normal”.
The sales totals beating The Predictor is exactly what we want to see. By the way, The Predictor said 95 for June and we reached 109 – a 12.8% margin. Beating the averages and setting sales records over some of the worst economic times is a true victory for our housing market. We are headed in the right direction. Here is an article from Bloomberg that even says so: http://tinyurl.com/42fhw92 …and that’s national news. So, if it’s getting better out there, it’s definitely getting better around here. We sink before the coasts and we rise before they do…it happens every time. Don’t let your buyers sit on the fence any longer. Get them to believe. Get them to commit.
If you would like some help to reach your goals, find creative solutions, and maximize your opportunities, let Land Title be a part of your solution. Give me a call or an email any time to set up a confidential meeting.
For July, The Predictor says: 101
Good news, good news and more good news for May of 2011. First, the good news…all that garbage you have been reading about the housing market has nothing to do with Longmont or most of the rest of the Denver Metro real estate market. Sure we have our challenges, but doom and gloom be damned. If we come even close to what The Predictor says for June, I will officially change my stance from optimistically neutral to outright positive. I’ll change because of the more good news…May of 2011 had the highest sales total since June of last year. Furthermore, May’s 90 solds blew The Predictor’s estimate of 73 out of the water! Even further, average and median sales prices are up along with nice increase in inventory. Talk to your lender too, those interest rate have not moved up like they were supposed to – qualified borrowers are still staring down the barrel of 4.5%! This all adds back up to “this is the best time in a generation to buy a house”.
I had a Realtor client tell me the other day she had 6 offers on a house. Another Realtor had 23 people show up for an open house. Two others had three competing offers on a property. Another Realtor got a contract after just 8 days on the market. These are some things that we haven’t seen in years. They are not indicative of the market as a whole, but they are signs of health…and really, isn’t that all we really need? What we don’t need is skyrocketing valuations and liar loans. I don’t know much about “shadow inventory” either, but I do know the Notice of Default list has gone from an average of 12 a week down to 5 a week over the past several months. That said, fewer bank owned properties are hitting the market, increasing this overall health. Yes, I like to live on the rosy side of the glass, but this, albeit anecdotal, evidence is mounting.
Predictor Says: 95 in June.
Do you remember 2009? The first part of that year was very similar to the start of 2011 so far. But in 2011, we are actually running at about a consistent 16% less volume each month compared to 2009. That kind of statistic brings out either the groans or the fangs. The question of whether that is good or bad is also raised. I kind of think there is a correlation between the two. Those who groan see only bad. The ones who bear their fangs start to drool. The difference is not just an attitude or confidence. The Realtors who are drooling are doing so because they know that there will be plenty of pessimism in the marketplace. They know the groan-ers will not be the do-ers. And the simple formula of mixing 50% enthusiasm, with 50% action and 50% consistency will net them another successful year.
I have been counseling lenders for 8 months to pick up their phone and make appointments to take every Realtor they know out for coffee. I’ve been advising Realtors for 6 months to pick up the phone and call everyone in their database to check up on their kids, dog, work and family. All this in preparation for 2011 when business is going to be its toughest in years. How many have listened to my advice? Not many. The few who have, found a gold mine sitting in their database. Think of all the Realtors and lenders who have left the business over the past 4 years. Who is marketing to their database? Nobody. Think of all the Realtors and lenders who have cut back on their sphere marketing programs over the past four years in order to conserve money. Who is marketing to their database? Nobody. There are a LOT of free-agents out there wanting to buy or sell a home who don’t have a go-to industry professional. To be successful in 2011 you have to be the one to find them and it is going to take a LOT of work.
Sales are still occurring out there. There are only 41 fewer sales in Longmont versus 2009 and we are only 25 behind where The Predictor says we should be for the year. The ugly negative numbers in this report are still being compared to the fake, stimulus fueled numbers from last year. The stimulus ended on June 30th of last year, so it won’t be until we report the August numbers in September when these largely negative looking numbers will disappear. I am available for confidential meetings to discuss your business strategy, work habits, brainstorm or otherwise assist you in helping you develop new business so you can have a successful year.
Predictor Says: May = 73
The new rule for the next three months is…NO FREAKING OUT! In this report and the following three you WILL see some seriously negative numbers. The Longmont sales numbers are going to look bad, but as I always try to point out with this commentary and observation, there is always more to the story than just the numbers.The sales volume we are experiencing right now is only slightly behind where The Predictor says we should be…to the tune of about 8%. The Year To Date sales volume compared to last year is double that, and the monthly sales volume is 4X that at over 33%! The good news in this story is that last years’ numbers were fake numbers. At least that’s what I call them because there is no correlation between those stimulus-fueled numbers and reality. This is true for both single family and attached homes in Longmont.
The sales that are occurring in Area 5 between Longmont and Boulder are truly impressive. How in the world can there be a 50+% increase in sales YTD? Talk about pent-up demand… This was the strongest area in all of Boulder County even last year. There is not huge volume in the $1M+ home market, so people must be finding real value in that half million dollar range. A little south of the half million dollar range is the Tri-Town area of Firestone, Frederick and Dacono with super strong sales last month. Keep those two outlying areas on your radar when showing properties to clients so that they too can take advantage of great pricing.
Predictor for April = 61
January 2011 Longmont KS Well…this is a link to the new, updated Longmont Real Estate Statistics report that went out last week. It took some work to re-do the format while preserving the data behind it that isn’t shown in the graph. I’m kind of a perfectionist with some things and this is one of them. Do I need to fiddle with it to make it look better?