I am thrilled to announce I have joined First American Title and will be opening an office in Longmont. This change is made even better with Jennifer Engelking and Lenise Jacobs on the team, as Closer and Assistant. We are all very excited for this opportunity to provide you with superior customer service. I’ve done my best to contact agents and lenders we’ve worked with for so many years, but wanted to use this stats piece as the official announcement of our move. For those of you who I’ve not spoken with yet, my apologies, we will surely catch up soon. My new contact information is below, so please feel free to call or email me at any time.
First American Title is a national title company with a stellar reputation. They have been underwriting in the state for many years and have had direct closing offices open in Colorado for the last 8 years. First American has been in business since 1889 and is based in Santa Ana, CA. They are a Fortune 100 company with outstanding people, support and systems. The management team is amazing and decision making is done on a local level, so we will be able to handle your questions on title work easily and quickly.
The new First American office in Longmont will be open on Monday, July 17th. You can find us at 512 4th Avenue, Suite 102, a half block east of Ziggy’s. Just look for the eagle on the door. If you need to place an order before then, you can email it to Jennifer Corsentino firstname.lastname@example.org. If you need me to come pick up earnest money, just shoot me an email at email@example.com or a text at 720-534-8355. I will get more details out next week once the office is finalized.
There are many great things I want to tell you about First American Title and our decision to join them, but that will have to wait until a later date. This email is about stats! Yes, these are the official stats of the Longmont Association of REALTORS®. These are correct and approved for use, so sit back and enjoy.
The end of June marks the end of the first half of the year, so I created charts to compare first half sales this year to those in the recent past. I did the math from the data in the chart on the left and can you believe the average price of a single family home in Longmont has risen 60%(!) since 2012? That is simply amazing. The chart on the right clearly shows the fewer sales total for the first half and we all know this is due to both lack of inventory and rising prices. You may notice the total sold in the chart on the right does not match the total in # Sold YTD. The total in the graph of 529 was pulled specifically for this report and is correct. The 510 number in the grid is comes from adding each monthly total together, but IRES does a great job of cleaning up the sales at the end of each month so the monthly number can go up or down depending on what they find. Also, some agents don’t get their listings updated by the time we publish. I usually update these in July and again in December to account for the slight monthly changes.
The monthly resale closed in the Longmont attached category is very low, but the yearly sold total is still ahead of last year. I’m pretty sure this is due to the increase in average price. If you think about it, this makes sense. Today the average price of an attached home in Longmont is about $50,000 higher than the average price of a single family home in 2012. There are fewer lower priced options for the attached buyer and those who’d love to sell are possibly being priced out of the single family homes… if they can find one.
The Boulder County Plains and the Carbon Valley numbers are still suffering from being underreported. There are many sales in both of these areas that occur in the other MLS only, but we are informed this lack of data will be fixed by the end of the year so we will go back and recalculate when we get the data back. But even without the complete data, which I estimate to be at least 20% of each market, it looks as if both areas would look strong. Overall, we are going to have to use these numbers more as a guide for the next few months.
Thank you very much for your support.
This month’s exercise in graph making was a little challenging, but revealing nonetheless. So let’s get right to it and talk about the rest near the end. One quick note before we start: of the 112 sales in April, 53 (47%) of them were listed in March.
Days on Market (DOM) is a term we all use to evaluate the health of a market. Generally speaking, a healthy market shows about 90 Days on Market. Higher than that and Realtors tend to think things are a little slow and sellers get antsy. Anything below 90 and it starts to move into that infamous, but undefined “seller’s market”. Sometimes, managing the expectations of sellers can be equally difficult in either market, so it is a factor that needs to be constantly managed because we all want to live up to the expectations of our clients.
You will notice the duration of the graph extends from more than a year before the crash of the market in October of 2008 until now. It starts in the high 90’s; muddles along; drops during the early days of the recession (because nobody could either buy or sell a house); then steadily rises as lending loosens. It drops significantly during the 1st time home buyer’s tax credit days; rises again to it’s high of 122 (1/11) and stays between 90-100 for most of 2011. This leveling out correlates perfectly with the first steady increase in prices (please refer back to last month’s graph of Avg Sales Price). There was a big bump in the winter months of ’11 and early ’12, but by July of 2012 the averages really went down and have been creeping downward ever since. If you recall, it was in June of 2011 that I called the recovery of the market and all indicators since have supported that assertion.
Today we are at an all-time low of just 52 DOM. To illustrate the significance of this move: from July ’07 until July ’12, the overall DOM is 100, and over the past 24 months it’s 70. That is a huge move especially when the overall average for the entire time is 91. Longmont is NOT unique to this scenario, but it does have its limits, even here in Colorado. All areas of Boulder County, north into Weld and Larimer and south through the Denver Metro area are experiencing lower DOM. The same cannot be said for our friends in Colorado Springs, Pueblo and on the Western Slope. It’s also not the case in most of the country even though there are pockets of hot activity in several areas.
Every area in this report is showing a lower YTD sales total compared to 2013 except for the Carbon Valley. Their percentage drop in listings is also the lowest for 14 of the past 15 months. So…I guess that means there needs to be listings in order to have sales… The volume is starting to pick up for the summer months and sales volume may not reach last years total unless the listings pick up substantially. Longmont may have a hard time reaching May’s Predictor number of 128 due to lack of inventory.
April 2014 Longmont Area Stats
- YTD Sales Volume DOWN 16.1% vs 2013
- All time LOW Days on Market in Longmont – 52!
- Average Sale Price OVER $300k for 4 of past 5 months!
- Longmont Attached Average Sales Price $209,216.
- Carbon Valley UP 12.3% Sales YTD
Last item, and this should have probably been first. Of the 112 sales last month, 57 of them we listed by a Longmont agent. That is a puny 51% of sales completed by a local expert – which is probably another all-time low, but I don’t track that number consistently. Can somebody tell me what an agent from Castle Rock, Denver, Loveland or Boulder brings to the table that a local agent can’t? I know it’s the prospect of an easy sale that brings them to town to list homes, but why are local sellers choosing an out of town agent over a local one who knows this market better than anyone else? If you haven’t competed on listing lately, then you aren’t talking to enough people…think about it.
I’ve already begun work on next month’s graph and you won’t want to miss that one. Promise.
When you think of choosing a Title Insurance partner think of Land Title, we have been locally owned and operated since 1967, with 100% of work produced in our 40+ Colorado offices.
The real estate mantra used to be “Location. Location. Location.” I believe the mantra du jour is “Inventory. Inventory. Inventory.” 15 of the 18 grids shown in this month’s Boulder County regional report show a decline in inventory levels over this time last year. In fact, in the March 2013 report we saw a 24.4% decline over 2012 levels in available single family listings in Boulder. Today we are reporting another 24.7% decline which equals a 42.9% decrease in inventory over the past two years! That’s amazing!
While inventory decreases, demand remains strong.Despite overall sales being down vs 2013 levels, we are actually ahead of 2012 by 11.2%. How can this be? It just doesn’t make sense unless you factor in demand. It’s stronger than the numbers may suggest. Consider the additional impact of new construction. Two years ago there was almost none; now it’s everywhere and even includes high-end spec homes. The increases in price and interest rates have a place in the demand formula as well. In Boulder, the average price is up almost $140k in two years and up $180k over last year. This means houses are more expensive. Interest rates up up about a point…also contributing to the increase in the cost of a home. So, to be up in sales volume with the addition of new construction, increase in price and higher interest rates, demand cannot be understated.
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Last month we took a brief look at how slim the inventory levels were in Boulder County towns in the lower price ranges. This month, take a look at the Average Days to Contract in all areas of this report. There are just three grids that show a number above 56 with a low of 2!. Those are just silly-low numbers.I have a Realtor client who had a listing and the seller did not receive a contract after the first weekend on the market. The seller called in a panic to ask what they were doing wrong! Even the expectations of sellers has changed abruptly. Needless to say the seller received two full-price offers the following week, but still, the scenario is unbelievable. Managing seller expectations appears to be the upcoming mantra. Do yourself a favor and make sure to have that conversation when you take a listing.
When you think of choosing a Title Insurance partner think of Land Title. We have been locally owned and operated since 1967, with 100% of work produced in our 40+ Colorado offices.