Surprise! I have a brand new chart this month! I also have two additional charts (see the bottom of this post) you may be able to use that goes along with it, but we will get to that later. First, there is a lot going on here and I want to get right into it.
This is the strongest first 1/3 of the year we have had since I started doing these reports in 2008. Year-to-date closings are 10.5% (or 46 closings) ahead of last year, 2 (closings) ahead of 2013 and a whopping 19 closings ahead of 2007. Back in January, I predicted we wouldn’t see big numbers for closings this year due to the low inventory. I don’t know about you, but the highest 1/3rd of the year in 8 years is the same as a big number. I guess I was a bit off. (Y’all need to call me out when I’m off like that.)
Longmont single family sales are almost always the focus of this report due to their significance to a majority of you loyal readers, but my focus is a bit elsewhere this month. Look at the 34.3% year-over-year change in Longmont condo sales. We briefly spoke of this in the past. Industry experts hypothesize this is due to the increase in price of single family homes. As the price of single family homes goes up and become less affordable, buyers tend to migrate their buying activity away from the more expensive single family product and into condos. Seems quite reasonable.
The Boulder Plains market is even hotter. Not only are their monthly and year-to-date closings way up over last year, their average and median prices are up significantly. What I’m asking myself right now is, “How can an area with a $650k+ average sales price have an average days on market as low as 48”? My gut is telling me it’s a migration from the high price of single family homes in Boulder (which averaged about $924k in the 1st quarter of 2015. It’s similar to the migration in Longmont from single family to condos.
May 2015 Longmont Area Stats
- Longmont SFR Closings UP 10.5% vs 2014
- Longmont Condo Closings UP 34.3% vs 2014!
- BoCo Plains Avg Sales Price = $656,257!
- Carbon Valley Closings UP 40.3% vs 2014!
The real rock star in this report is the Carbon Valley. They really have 40.3% more homes sold out there this year than last. Their 355 total through May is twice, yes you read that right, more than double the number they had for the same period in 2008 (175). That is astronomically high. Their sales benefit from a double whammy of price appreciation. They get overflow from buyers who are priced out of both the Longmont AND the Denver Metro market. Yes, remember that prices are spiking down there and inventory is even lower as a percentage of historical norms. Our relative inventory is at about 30% normal levels. In Metro, it’s about 10% of historical averages.
The good news out in the Carbon Valley is the recent approval of an ODP for a new development of about 3,500 new homesto be built northeast of Hwy 119 and I-25 called Barefoot Lakes. The developer (Brookfield) is very good at what they do (they built Sol Terra, Talyn’s Reach and Brighton Crossing) and the Town of Firestone is very receptive to doing business with companies who do more than asked when going through the development process. So, if everything goes as planned, they should start construction of about 300 homes late this year. More homes built should create capacity in the system for sellers to possibly move up and give them the ability to sell a moderately priced home in the area.
Now for the chart. You forgot about it didn’t you? I was graciously given this template by, Megan Aller. She isn’t just a stats geek, she’s an actual math major who dreams in numbers. This chart tells us the odds of selling a home, in a given price range, last month. I had to extend the chart for our $200-299(,999) bar graph because nothing has ever been that high. The odds are based on the inventory, under contracts and closings for last month. You can generally apply the percentages going forward when taking a listing, but this also assumes a house is priced right because it sold. You’d hate to be one of the 9.7% in to $200’s that didn’t sell because it’s way over-priced. There were two two additional graphs that Megan’s template spits out: Average Days on Market and Supply in Months, both broken down into price bands. Please see them below.
This chart shows that any house priced between $200,000 and $299,000 had an Average Days on market of 28 days.
Thanks for reading. I hope you all have a great month. Please feel free to contact me with any questions.