This month’s exercise in graph making was a little challenging, but revealing nonetheless. So let’s get right to it and talk about the rest near the end. One quick note before we start: of the 112 sales in April, 53 (47%) of them were listed in March.
Days on Market (DOM) is a term we all use to evaluate the health of a market. Generally speaking, a healthy market shows about 90 Days on Market. Higher than that and Realtors tend to think things are a little slow and sellers get antsy. Anything below 90 and it starts to move into that infamous, but undefined “seller’s market”. Sometimes, managing the expectations of sellers can be equally difficult in either market, so it is a factor that needs to be constantly managed because we all want to live up to the expectations of our clients.
You will notice the duration of the graph extends from more than a year before the crash of the market in October of 2008 until now. It starts in the high 90’s; muddles along; drops during the early days of the recession (because nobody could either buy or sell a house); then steadily rises as lending loosens. It drops significantly during the 1st time home buyer’s tax credit days; rises again to it’s high of 122 (1/11) and stays between 90-100 for most of 2011. This leveling out correlates perfectly with the first steady increase in prices (please refer back to last month’s graph of Avg Sales Price). There was a big bump in the winter months of ’11 and early ’12, but by July of 2012 the averages really went down and have been creeping downward ever since. If you recall, it was in June of 2011 that I called the recovery of the market and all indicators since have supported that assertion.
Today we are at an all-time low of just 52 DOM. To illustrate the significance of this move: from July ’07 until July ’12, the overall DOM is 100, and over the past 24 months it’s 70. That is a huge move especially when the overall average for the entire time is 91. Longmont is NOT unique to this scenario, but it does have its limits, even here in Colorado. All areas of Boulder County, north into Weld and Larimer and south through the Denver Metro area are experiencing lower DOM. The same cannot be said for our friends in Colorado Springs, Pueblo and on the Western Slope. It’s also not the case in most of the country even though there are pockets of hot activity in several areas.
Every area in this report is showing a lower YTD sales total compared to 2013 except for the Carbon Valley. Their percentage drop in listings is also the lowest for 14 of the past 15 months. So…I guess that means there needs to be listings in order to have sales… The volume is starting to pick up for the summer months and sales volume may not reach last years total unless the listings pick up substantially. Longmont may have a hard time reaching May’s Predictor number of 128 due to lack of inventory.
April 2014 Longmont Area Stats
- YTD Sales Volume DOWN 16.1% vs 2013
- All time LOW Days on Market in Longmont – 52!
- Average Sale Price OVER $300k for 4 of past 5 months!
- Longmont Attached Average Sales Price $209,216.
- Carbon Valley UP 12.3% Sales YTD
Last item, and this should have probably been first. Of the 112 sales last month, 57 of them we listed by a Longmont agent. That is a puny 51% of sales completed by a local expert – which is probably another all-time low, but I don’t track that number consistently. Can somebody tell me what an agent from Castle Rock, Denver, Loveland or Boulder brings to the table that a local agent can’t? I know it’s the prospect of an easy sale that brings them to town to list homes, but why are local sellers choosing an out of town agent over a local one who knows this market better than anyone else? If you haven’t competed on listing lately, then you aren’t talking to enough people…think about it.
I’ve already begun work on next month’s graph and you won’t want to miss that one. Promise.
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