Archive for August, 2018
I see a lot of fun and exciting things in this month’s sales statistics report. I also uncovered and updated a couple of other tidbits for your reading pleasure. But first of all, I want to thank everyone who came to the Grand Opening and Ribbon Cutting at the new First American Title office. We had well over a hundred guests, great food and fun was had by all in our beautiful new space. Thank you.
There hasn’t been a monthly report with this many red numbers on it since 2009 or 2010. But honestly, it’s not all bad news. This is just a one month snapshot, so it doesn’t tell the whole story, but it surely can tell some of it. One number that isn’t red is the average sales price for Area 5 ($1,041,830!!!). Last year’s average price in July was the previous highest number typed into this report. This year it’s even bigger and for the first time in 13 years of producing this report, we have an average sale price of over a million dollars. And yes, for reference, I pulled up the averages for the City of Boulder to compare. Year to Date, the average sales price of a single family home in Boulder is $1.269 million and the average price of an attached home is just north of $588k!
As you can clearly see, the red numbers in the Longmont Single Family section are just slightly lower in: monthly sales, yearly sales and days on market, but WOW on the decrease in inventory. To have these negative numbers and still have the median and average sales prices go up is incredible. This is a clear indication of steady demand. Yes, there is a correlation to low supply, but I’d have guessed that the demand would wane a bit with our previous price increases. It’s the proverbial wind being taken from the sails, but that’s not happening.
I see some interesting numbers in the Longmont attached sales too. It looks like a large drop in sales, but the 2017 sales were buoyed by, among others, the 8 condos on Charles Dr that sold in the $400k range. There were only 2 new construction attached sales in July of 2018…so it’s easy to see where that decrease came from. We don’t do negative median and average, or at least we haven’t for the past several years, so why the negative median sales price in attached homes? It’s really just a blip caused by the lower sales volume as discussed above.
Please take a look at the graph I created this month. Industrywide we have been noticing “it’s just a little slower than it was” for some time now. The graph shows monthly sales totals for each month for the past 6 years. It also shows the average for those 6 years. The only month in 2018 when the monthly sales total exceeded the average was March. Also, March and January were the only months where the monthly sales total exceed that of last year. Overall, this is clearly a declining trend. In fact, just this morning, a wise, local sales manager (Rodney Carlson) suggested we are seeing a return to a normal market. The only problem with that assessment is that normal is going to mean something different to a long-timer than it is to an agent who has been in the business less than 6 years.
The Carbon Valley is quietly putting in huge numbers. Their monthly sales have been steady and their YTD sales are not declining like in Longmont. They are also facing the similar challenges with lower inventory and rising prices. Somehow, their median and average prices don’t seem to be climbing as fast as those in Longmont. There is a lot of new construction east of I-25…I wonder if that has anything to do with it.
I have a new resource in my stats world so things may be changing. One of the top sales reps in the state has decided to join our team here at First American Title. Her name is Megan Aller and many of you may know her from her real estate statistical presentations in the Denver Metro area. I am going to promise her a beer or two to help me update some of what I do here for you. More to come on that later.