Archive for April, 2017
It’s official. We are now comparing apples to oranges. Everyone is always clamoring for apples to apples, but today, everything has changed. In all past stats reports we have used identical data sources, pulled in exactly the same manner at the same time every month to bring you this statistical data. And now, because of the death of data sharing between IRES and REColorado, this is not possible. With the disappearance of about 8-12% of our monthly data, I had to make some choices to work around this problem.
The first possibility is to pull in REColorado data and de-dupe it to add that data to IRES to get what should like our data from before the split. The problem here-REColorado doesn’t define an area in the same way IRES does, so it would take way too much time and still not be accurate.
The next possibility is to go back and just pull IRES data from a year ago and compare it to just IRES data this month. This is a better option than above, but I don’t like changing data I have previously published. Something about that feels wrong and I think it would create a lot of confusion about which one was changed and which one isn’t. It’d be like working with two different sets of data.
The third option, and the one I chose, was to keep the data from the past that comes from both IRES and RECO.com, and just include the IRES data I have at my disposal. This actually creates some unique perspectives, gives me a couple more things to talk about and hopefully it’ll be a temporary problem that can be updated (to change previously published data) or amended. I think it’s also the path of least resistance.
The first thing I did after I picked the third option above, was to scratch in what the sheet would have looked like had we chosen the 2nd option above. Believe it or not, there wouldn’t be that many big changes. In the Longmont Single Family, the top two lines would have a 10-ish% difference instead of a 20-ish% difference. Longmont attached would be the same except the median and averages would have gone through the roof. BoCo Plains would be nearly identical in all data points. And lastly, the FFD section would be similar to Longmont SFR with the percentages on # Sold for Month and YTD cut in half.
March 2017 Longmont Area Stats
Click here for .pdf file
From my experience in looking at this data every month, the area in which a loss of data share should impact the most is expected to be the Firestone, Frederick and Dacono region. This area typically has closer to a 30% penetration of metro area agents, who, in the past, have listed these homes in REColorado only. I guess we will see real soon if they make the move to list in IRES. My bet is that they do. I just don’t think that area has enough strength to be a stand-alone area for metro agents.
Other than that, how are things going so far in the first quarter? So far, so good I’d say. This despite the continued lack of listings. March 15th had traditionally been the start of the spring listing season, but that date has been pushed back about a month over the past three years. The reason being, you don’t need 60 days of marketing time and 30 days more to close a deal by June 15th… when the kids get out of school. You only need a couple weeks marketing time and the 30 or so days to close, making April 15-30 the perfect time to list to close by June 15. And, so soon as I got done explaining this theory to a couple hundred Realtors, the listings started pouring in on about March 23rd. I can’t say that being wrong is a problem in this case, in fact, it’s way better than being right because of the listings that come with it. Best guess it was probably due to the summer-like weather we’ve had this past winter.
And, just for the record, the $418,465 average sales price this month is the all-time high monthly average. Yes, as in highest EVER in Longmont. Not a great big deal because it’s March and there are still fewer than 100 homes sold in a month, but chew on this number: $412,467. That’s the average sales price in Longmont for the entire 1st quarter… Another all-time high.
Go list some houses, if you can, you won’t regret it.
By the way. I stole the headline for this post from Shay Castle at the Times Call. She has been doing a fantastic job of covering the Longmont housing market for nearly two years now. And because of her work, the Daily Camera and Denver Post have been covering the Longmont market as well. Thanks Shay. Here is her complete article: Average monthly home prices reach all-time high in Longmont.