Strong November Sales a Nice Surprise
Happy winter…finally. I thought we’d never get snow this year. Fingers crossed for a white Christmas. In the meantime, we have some stats to look at before you begin your winter hibernation.
A couple of years ago I switched up the graphs in this report to show different ways of looking inside the numbers. The old graph was just updated each month and looked like the one below. While I think it shows some good information, it can get a little stale seeing it month after month. For old times-sake I have to sneak it in every once in a while. I think it’s more interesting to see it with the peaks and dips from ’05-’11, but that’s just too messy. One thing here is obvious by looking at the purple lines that represent 2015, is that last year was a pretty darn big year for residential resale in Longmont. We won’t reach that total this year unless we have about 200 closing this December and there is a zero chance of that happening. We will end up with about 8% (or about 100) fewer sales and an overall price increase of about what we saw last year of around 11%. I guess those things are good, but what will we see next year?
It isn’t the New Year yet, but I’m ready to make a few predictions for 2017. I predict we will see an equal number of total sales in 2017 as in 2016. The end of this year will show our yearly overall sales price to be about $385,000 and I predict our sales price increase will be smaller – hopefully no more than 6%. If we do a 6% average price increase, the average home price for next year will be over $400,000! The tougher one to swallow will be my prediction of yearly average days on market will increase to the 60-70 day range…and that will make a lot of people nervous. It’ll be foreign territory for sellers and their agents, kind of like 4.5% interest rates will be too. The main driver behind my predictions are twofold, the rising interest rates, but the greatest influence will be the construction of new homes. In the end, all of these are good things, even the higher interest rates, because they will resemble something closer to the historical norm. Hyper price increases of 11% a year, 35 days on market and 3.5% interest rates make things looks rosy, but they don’t represent a healthy, balanced market.
November 2016 Longmont Area Stats
Click here for .pdf file
As for November stats, they were a bit better than predicted. Every area had a higher sales total in November of 2016 than they did in November of 2015. That result probably had a lot to do with the mild weather we’ve experienced the last few months coupled with a newer phenomenon over the last few years that has been fueled by low inventory – a longer buying season. The summer spikes aren’t any higher for the same reason, meaning, if a buyer can’t find the house they are looking for in the summer months (due to low inventory), they have to buy in the fall and winter months. The next three months are the most unpredictable of the year, but this fact remains in-tact: those people who have a home listed are ready to sell.
I like to point out oddities in the stats report and we have one we don’t see very often. Look at the average and median sales prices in Area 5…one is up and one is down. This happened in February of this year with attached homes in Longmont and, ironically, in Area 5 last November.
If I don’t get a chance to see you in the next few weeks, I hope you and your loved ones have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.