Archive for November, 2016
Getting right to the point today. Happy Friday.
Longmont attached sales. Huge increase in monthly sales totals. Huge increase in average days on market. Huge increases in both median and average sales prices and a good leap in the number of active listings. Something isn’t quite right here… Check the data and you’ll quickly see the culprit of a few of those big increases. Of the 40 attached sales, 8 of them were from the new Hover Place condos. They had an average price of $391,237 and an average days on market of 233 days. This easily explains the skewing of price and DOM results. Hidden in this are the moderately priced new condos on Summer Hawk where there were 7 sales between $250k and $280k. This explains a lot. When is the last time we had 15 new condos sold in a month?
Longmont single family homes. Five of them actually sold for below $250k. Good news, right? Half (45) of them sold for between $300k and $400k. This is more good news because it shows there are still plenty of options in the somewhat affordable range. There were 2 that sold for over $1M – both were in Somerset Meadows. And the resulting average sales price was $386k, which somehow makes me feel better because it wasn’t over $400k again. And even though last month’s average was over $400k, I calculated the overall average for the year and it’s right around $385.
October 2016 Longmont Area Stats
Click here for .pdf file
Boulder County Plains. I long for the days when a stats piece looks like this…normal. It has nice increases in sales totals for the month and year, steady days on market and slight increases in price. Look at the median price increases in the other 3 areas of the report…they are all over 18% – that’s just too steep. It’s good for homeowners and such, not so much for buyers. The prices are just outpacing incomes, or at least that’s the general thinking on this. I had a thought, what if our prices were just lagging behind and they are just catching up to where they should be? I’m not equipped to answer that question, but it’s my official hypothesis.
Carbon Valley. While looking at the active listings and solds for the month I did a quick sort to see how many were being listed by REColorado (typically Denver Metro based) agents. For the active listings it’s 35% and for the closed sales it was 37%. A full one-third of all listings and sales are by Denver agents. I thought one of the biggest factors impacting this would be the the low-price agents, it’s not. While there are a few, it’s mostly because there are Denver agents representing builders. In Longmont we are holding steady at 12% of Denver agents. Back in the days of high foreclosures it was 12% as well. I had thought that would decrease when the market normalized, but it hasn’t changed.
Last item – the graph. I updated this from June of 2015. It has now been almost two full years since the average price in Longmont hasn’t dipped to meet up with the average price in the Carbon Valley. This would be hard to say exactly why, but I think I may have touched upon this earlier when I said that the rise in prices is really just a result of them having lagged behind for so long. The graph is pretty clear that about twice a year Longmont would dip and the Carbon Valley would jump so the lines would touch. Not having this for two years is an indicator of strength. Sure the inventory is still low, but it’s low everywhere. Price is only one component of perceived value and people must be seeing the value of paying more to live in Longmont. We can argue this point a lot of ways, but the prime example is Boulder, where the average price in October was $1,058,117!
I hope y’all have a great weekend. Go Broncos! Crush the Raiders.