Local Housing Inventory Still an Issue
This is the first report in quite some time where we’ve seen a significant amount of negative information in the Longmont market. Not only are we showing a negative number for monthly solds for both single family and attached homes, but we are now significantly down on a year-to-date basis. As your eyes scroll down the list, the following two data points are also negative, but they don’t have the same negative impact. Days on market going down shows increased demand, which is good. The low number of active listings is negative to the extent that there is very little for buyers to choose from. It’s fairly widely assumed that inventory will increase in the next 30-45 days, but at this point the low inventory is directly responsible for the low number of sales.
This month’s graph is self-explanatory but very telling about the market we are currently experiencing. Since 2007, the highest number of active listings in Longmont was 894 in July of 2007. The low was in December of 2013…of 202. In comparative terms we currently have 22.6% the number of listings we had in ’07. Oddly enough, we had 153 MORE sales in ’13 than in ’07. The only way you can have more sales with 77.4% fewer listings is to have tremendously higher demand.
Here are a couple of other items I see in the data set associated with the graph. In every single year depicted the lowest inventory level of the year was in December. There is no set in stone month for a high number of listings. We reached the peak as early as April (in 2010), but most commonly we reach the peak in July (3 times in the last 7 years).
There are a number of reasons why we are in this low inventory situation right now. We have reviewed them here over the past several months and that list includes: underwater homeowners who would have to pay to move, job stability (or instability), and confidence in the economy. But with the increase in home values and the stabilization of the job market, there are fewer reasons now why someone wouldn’t put their home on the market. One reason that has become more prevalent in recent months is that sellers can’t find a replacement home. How crazy is it that we are in this predicament?
February 2014 Longmont Area Stats
- YTD Sales Volume DOWN 27.6% vs 2013
- Only 3 Active Listings UNDER $200,000
- Only 25 Active Listings UNDER Average Sold Price
- Average Attached Dewlling Sales Price $188,175
- 60.0% Increase in YTD Sales Volume in Tri-Town area
Onto some other stats… Sales in the Boulder County Plains (this is generally the area between Longmont and Boulder excluding Gunbarrel) are holding strong. We understand from seeing this report over so many years that the average and median sales prices here fluctuate greatly because of the inconsistent turnover of very high priced homes in this area. Other than that, this area is statistically doing quite well compared to Longmont and I’m not quite sure why. Let me know if you know.
Doing quite well is putting it lightly for the Tri-Town area of Firestone, Frederick and Dacono. The results here mirror what we saw with rising prices in Longmont back in ’07. When Longmont prices get higher, people tend to go to outlying areas to find value. It looks like this is happening again.The report for this area is fantastic all while they are dealing with lower inventory as well. This means that demand is pushing prices upward in all areas.
Last, but very interesting to me. If you take out the Active/Backup and Pendings in Longmont, there are actuallyonly 103 Active Listings. Of those, only 3 are under $200,000, 11 are between $200k and $250k; 14 in the $250-$300k range; and 25 from $300-$400. There are exactly 25 – or ¼ of the active listings that are UNDER the Average Sales Price of $284,993. The average DOM for ALL those 103 listings is 94 days. If you take out any house that was listed in the past 30 days (64 remain), the Average DOM is 144 days. And if you take out the homes listed in the past 60 days (47 remain), the Average DOM is 183 days – or 3.1 times the average. In this last group, two homes are listed under $200k and 3 are over $1.15M. Interesting…
Last month you got your sellers per-qualified to buy and had a nice Valentines Day with your sweetie. This month, call your kids’ teacher, your doctor and your that crazy uncle you don’t talk to much. Ask them if they know anyone who is thinking of selling their home.